What is the epistemic crisis?

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What is the epistemic crisis? “Epistemic crisis” is the label commonly given to the widespread breakdown of shared norms for establishing what is true, reliable or authoritative. RAND’s 2018 report on “Truth Decay” described “diminishing agreement about facts” and “declining trust in previously respected sources of factual information” as the defining features of the phenomenon [4]. Survey data show steady erosion of confidence in government [3], scientists [5], and the news media [14]. Essays by commentators across the ideological spectrum (e.g., Arnold Kling [6], Conspicuous Cognition [7], Nate Silver [9]) interpret these numbers as evidence that American public life no longer has a commonly accepted epistemic authority. The crisis is therefore not just about “fake news” but about a structural weakening of the institutions and practices that once produced a common evidentiary baseline.

Causes of the epistemic crisis

1. Politicization of institutions

  • Experimental work shows that when people learn an institution has taken a partisan stand, trust falls even among ideological allies [1].  
  • Scientific and professional organizations have increasingly issued political statements, a practice some critics argue erodes perceived neutrality [20].

1. Replication and methodological problems in science

  • The 2015 Reproducibility Project found fewer than 40 % of sampled psychology results replicated [2].  
  • Follow-up syntheses estimate that “roughly 75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].  Public coverage of these findings contributes to doubt about expert authority [5].

1. Media system incentives

  • RAND notes “blurring of the line between opinion and fact” in 24-hour and online media [4].  
  • Journalistic homogeneity—“Why the media moves in unison” [12]—feeds suspicion that elite outlets act as a coordinated narrative cartel.  
  • First-person accounts from within legacy outlets (e.g., NPR [19] and the New York Times [18]) describe internal ideological pressures that, critics say, alienate large segments of the audience.

1. Information abundance and social media

  • Commentators argue that decentralized, algorithm-driven platforms overwhelm citizens’ ability to vet claims, making it easier for both elite and non-elite misinformation to spread [15].

1. Declining performance of governing and expert institutions

  • Per Pew, trust in federal government has hovered near historic lows since the mid-2000s [3].  Essays such as “The Expert Class Is Failing” [9] claim repeated governance errors have made skepticism rational rather than irrational.

Examples of elite failures frequently cited as catalysts (The listed sources may discuss or use them as illustrative cases rather than provide original reporting.)

• Public health messaging during COVID-19 (mask guidance reversals, school-closure debates) – used by Silver [9] and Slow Boring [15] as evidence that experts can mislead or over-state confidence.

• The replication crisis in psychology and social science – documented empirically by Science [2] and spotlighted for the lay public by Unsafe Science [13].

• Media framing errors, e.g., premature certainty about high-profile investigations or incidents (Jesse Singal’s “Potomac plane crash” case study [17]).

• Perceived groupthink at flagship news organizations – internal critiques from veteran journalists at the New York Times [18] and NPR [19].

• Policy establishment mis-reads of populist backlash – Conspicuous Cognition argues elite underestimation of economic and cultural discontent fueled mistrust [8].

(Authors disagree on the weight of each example. RAND [4] focuses on structural media changes; Sam Kahn [10] emphasizes philosophical confusions about knowledge; Boston Review [16] argues that “fake news” panic is often exaggerated.)

Timeline of key moments in the public discourse

2015 – Reproducibility Project publishes in Science, sparking mainstream attention to methodological weaknesses [2].

2016 – 2018 – “Fake news” becomes a political catch-phrase; RAND releases “Truth Decay” (2018) framing the issue as systemic [4].

2020 – COVID-19 pandemic accelerates debate over expert credibility; Substack essays multiply (e.g., Kling [6]).

2023 – Pew reports continued slide in trust in scientists [5]; commentaries such as “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” argue the conversation had been too focused on fringe conspiracy theories [15].

2024 – Pre-print evidence that politicization itself depresses trust even among partisans [1]; opinion pieces in major outlets (Washington Post [14]) and Substacks (Silver [9]) frame the crisis as central to electoral politics.

Current contours of the debate

• Some scholars and journalists see an existential threat to liberal democracy if no shared epistemic foundation can be restored [4][12].
• Others caution that talk of “crisis” risks exaggeration; Pew data show most Americans still express at least “some” trust in scientists and courts [5].
• Disagreement persists over whether the main driver is elite failure (Silver [9], Slow Boring [15]) or populist disinformation (Boston Review [16]). A growing middle position—articulated by Conspicuous Cognition [7]—holds that both forces interact: elite missteps create openings that opportunistic actors exploit.

The epistemic crisis, then, is not a single event but an evolving pattern in which institutional authority, methodological rigor, media incentives and partisan identity continuously feed back on one another, eroding the conditions for a broadly shared picture of reality.

Sources

1. Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
2. Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
3. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (Long-running survey report)
4. Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018 research report / policy study)
5. Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023 survey report)
6. An Epistemic Crisis? – In My Tribe (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
7. America’s Epistemological Crisis – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
8. Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
9. The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Silver Bulletin (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
10. It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Kahn (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
11. The Reckoning – Sam Harris (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
12. Why the Media Moves in Unison – Persuasion (Opinion / Essay)
13. 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – Unsafe Science (Substack) (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
14. The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
15. Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Slow Boring (Opinion / Essay)
16. The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (Long-form analysis / Essay)
17. How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (Substack) (Commentary / Media criticism)
18. When the New York Times Lost Its Way – 1843 Magazine (The Economist) (Magazine feature)
19. I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (First-person essay / Media criticism)
20. Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (Substack) (Commentary essay)

Question

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?