What is the epistemic crisis?

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What is the “epistemic crisis”?

A growing body of empirical work and commentary argues that the United States, and to a lesser extent other liberal democracies, are experiencing an “epistemic crisis” – a breakdown in the social processes by which citizens identify reliable information, form shared factual baselines and hold institutions accountable for error. Symptoms include historically low levels of trust in government and media, declining confidence in scientists, partisan divergence over basic facts, and a surge in misinformation and conspiratorial narratives [3][4][5][14]. The crisis is not simply about “fake news” but about the erosion of the cultural and institutional mechanisms that once resolved disputes over truth [4][6][7][16].

What is causing it?

Multiple, partly overlapping explanations appear in the sources.

• Politicization of institutions. When scientific or professional bodies take overtly ideological positions, even co-partisans lose trust [1][20].

• Declining reliability of expert knowledge. Large-scale replication failures in psychology and biomedicine have undermined confidence in academic research [2][13].

• Information overload and the digital media environment. Social media, partisan news outlets and algorithmic feeds amplify emotive claims faster than fact-based reporting, making it difficult for the public to sort signal from noise [4][12][16].

• Elite information failures. High-profile mistakes by governments, public-health officials, intelligence agencies and media organizations have convinced many citizens that gatekeepers are no better informed than lay people [8][9][15].

• Polarization and motivated reasoning. Partisans increasingly reject inconvenient facts, producing “two epistemic universes” that rarely overlap [1][4][6][7].

There is disagreement on emphasis. Commentators such as Arnold Kling stress cognitive tribalism [6], while RAND researchers highlight structural media changes [4]. Substack writers argue that elite insularity is the root problem [9][15]; Pew maintains that partisan cues matter more than individual events [3][5].

Examples of elite failures frequently cited as catalysts

• Scientific replication crisis – only ~40 % of landmark psychology findings reproduced in a coordinated effort [2], with later analyses suggesting the non-replication rate may be closer to 75 % [13].

• Public-health communication during the COVID-19 pandemic – shifting guidance and political messaging cited as a textbook case of politicization eroding trust [1][9][15].

• Media reporting lapses – The New York Times’ coverage controversies [18], NPR’s internal critique that it marginalized dissenting voices [19], and the rapid, erroneous speculation after the Potomac plane crash [17] are offered as evidence that journalistic norms have weakened.

• Government competence and integrity – declining approval of federal institutions since the 1960s, with new lows reached after events such as the Iraq WMD intelligence failure and the 2008 financial crisis [3][8].

• Professional associations taking partisan stances – for example, scientific societies endorsing political candidates, which some researchers warn undermines their perceived neutrality [20].

Collectively, these incidents reinforce public perceptions that experts are fallible, partisan, or both, feeding the larger epistemic crisis.

Sources

1. Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
2. Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
3. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (Long-running survey report)
4. Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018 research report / policy study)
5. Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023 survey report)
6. An Epistemic Crisis? – In My Tribe (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
7. America’s Epistemological Crisis – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
8. Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
9. The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Silver Bulletin (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
10. It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Kahn (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
11. The Reckoning – Sam Harris (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
12. Why the Media Moves in Unison – Persuasion (Opinion / Essay)
13. 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – Unsafe Science (Substack) (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
14. The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
15. Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Slow Boring (Opinion / Essay)
16. The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (Long-form analysis / Essay)
17. How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (Substack) (Commentary / Media criticism)
18. When the New York Times Lost Its Way – 1843 Magazine (The Economist) (Magazine feature)
19. I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (First-person essay / Media criticism)
20. Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (Substack) (Commentary essay)

Question

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?