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~~What is the “epistemic crisis”?~~

''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''

~~Most of the authors listed use the phrase~~ to ~~describe a breakdown in~~ the ~~public’s capacity to agree on basic facts or to trust~~ the institutions that once certified those facts. They point to a widening gap between “expert” knowledge and public belief, a collapse in confidence in media, academia, and government, and a sense that citizens no longer share a stable reality on which to deliberate policy or politics [2] [4] [5] [7]. Arnold Kling is ~~wary of calling it a full-blown “crisis,” but concedes that we face a growing problem of “intellectual pollution” that makes reliable knowledge harder to identify [1]~~.

What is the ~~cause of the~~ crisis?

'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''

~~1. Accumulated elite mistakes. Repeated, highly visible errors by governments, scientists, journalists and other authorities have damaged credibility [3] [4] [6] [10].~~

2. Incentive structures inside knowledge-producing institutions. Career pressure, ideological conformity and media herd behaviour reward attention and consensus more than accuracy [4] [7] [10] [11].

~~3. Information-environment change. Social media, niche outlets and algorithmic feeds amplify both expert messaging and its critique, making it harder to distinguish signal from noise [2] [5] [12].~~

~~4. A replication and verification shortfall. In fields like psychology, most published findings do not hold up under scrutiny, undermining faith in “settled science” [8].~~

~~Some authors disagree~~ on ~~emphasis: Kling [1] and~~ the ~~Boston Review essay [12] see talk~~ of ~~a crisis as overstated~~ or ~~as a moral panic about “misinformation~~,~~” whereas Silver~~ [4] and ~~Kahn~~ [5] ~~argue~~ that institutional ~~rot is deep enough to justify the word~~.

An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].

~~Examples~~ of ~~elite failure that fuelled~~ the crisis

'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''

~~• 2003 Iraq-WMD intelligence fiasco (used by several writers as an early benchmark of expert error) [6].~~

~~• The 2008–09 financial crisis, when regulators and economists failed to foresee systemic risk [3] [4].~~

• COVID-19 communication reversals—e.g., early mask guidance, school-closure debates, and the lab-leak fight—showing scientific advice being issued with more certainty than evidence warranted [4] [6] [10].

~~• The “replication crisis” in psychology and other social sciences, with roughly three-quarters of tested findings failing to reproduce [8].~~

• Media “herd” errors such as uniform polling narratives in 2016 and 2020, and the quick suppression of the Hunter-Biden-laptop story, later partly reversed, illustrating how newsroom conformity can misinform the public [7] [9] [10].

~~• Higher-education governance controversies—DEI bureaucracies, speech codes, retracted papers—seen by some writers as evidence that universities privilege ideology over truth-seeking [11].~~

~~Public discourse~~

Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.

Across Substack, mainstream newspapers, and podcasts, two broad camps have emerged. One camp (Silver, Harris, Yglesias, Kahn) stresses structural problems inside elite institutions and urges major reforms before trust can be rebuilt [4] [5] [6] [10]. A second camp (Kling, Boston Review, parts of mainstream media) argues that the notion of a singular “crisis” can itself be exploited to delegitimise expertise and that pluralistic disagreement is normal in a free society [1] [12]. Despite differences, both sides concede that the health of our epistemic institutions now figures centrally in debates over democracy, populism and policy.

~~— Written by WikleBot~~. ~~Help improve~~ this ~~answer~~ by ~~adding~~ to the sources ~~below~~.

* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].

* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].

* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].

* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].

* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].

* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].

'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''

Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.

* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.

* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].

* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].

* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].

* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].

* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].

'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''

Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.

== Sources ==

# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? ~~- Arnold Kling~~]

# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)

# https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis

# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)

# https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)

# https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so

# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)

# https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)

# https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning

# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/

# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated

# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

~~# https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/man5gslt4zforzakwrs5y~~/~~johnsailer_subs.pdf?rlkey=3rpu6pqmektvckyf733qn3ksg&e=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&dl=0~~

# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/

# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)

# https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac

# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)

# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)

# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)

# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)

# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)

# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)

# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)

== Question ==

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-What is the “epistemic crisis”?
+''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
-Most of the authors listed use the phrase to describe a breakdown in the public’s capacity to agree on basic facts or to trust the institutions that once certified those facts.  They point to a widening gap between “expert” knowledge and public belief, a collapse in confidence in media, academia, and government, and a sense that citizens no longer share a stable reality on which to deliberate policy or politics [2] [4] [5] [7].  Arnold Kling is wary of calling it a full-blown “crisis,” but concedes that we face a growing problem of “intellectual pollution” that makes reliable knowledge harder to identify [1].
-What is the cause of the crisis?
+'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''
-. Accumulated elite mistakes.  Repeated, highly visible errors by governments, scientists, journalists and other authorities have damaged credibility [3] [4] [6] [10].
-. Incentive structures inside knowledge-producing institutions.  Career pressure, ideological conformity and media herd behaviour reward attention and consensus more than accuracy [4] [7] [10] [11].
-. Information-environment change.  Social media, niche outlets and algorithmic feeds amplify both expert messaging and its critique, making it harder to distinguish signal from noise [2] [5] [12].
-. A replication and verification shortfall.  In fields like psychology, most published findings do not hold up under scrutiny, undermining faith in “settled science” [8].
-Some authors disagree on emphasis: Kling [1] and the Boston Review essay [12] see talk of a crisis as overstated or as a moral panic about “misinformation,” whereas Silver [4] and Kahn [5] argue that institutional rot is deep enough to justify the word.
+An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].
-Examples of elite failure that fuelled the crisis
+'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''
-• 2003 Iraq-WMD intelligence fiasco (used by several writers as an early benchmark of expert error) [6].
-• The 2008–09 financial crisis, when regulators and economists failed to foresee systemic risk [3] [4].
-• COVID-19 communication reversals—e.g., early mask guidance, school-closure debates, and the lab-leak fight—showing scientific advice being issued with more certainty than evidence warranted [4] [6] [10].
-• The “replication crisis” in psychology and other social sciences, with roughly three-quarters of tested findings failing to reproduce [8].
-• Media “herd” errors such as uniform polling narratives in 2016 and 2020, and the quick suppression of the Hunter-Biden-laptop story, later partly reversed, illustrating how newsroom conformity can misinform the public [7] [9] [10].
-• Higher-education governance controversies—DEI bureaucracies, speech codes, retracted papers—seen by some writers as evidence that universities privilege ideology over truth-seeking [11].
-Public discourse
+Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.
-Across Substack, mainstream newspapers, and podcasts, two broad camps have emerged.  One camp (Silver, Harris, Yglesias, Kahn) stresses structural problems inside elite institutions and urges major reforms before trust can be rebuilt [4] [5] [6] [10].  A second camp (Kling, Boston Review, parts of mainstream media) argues that the notion of a singular “crisis” can itself be exploited to delegitimise expertise and that pluralistic disagreement is normal in a free society [1] [12].  Despite differences, both sides concede that the health of our epistemic institutions now figures centrally in debates over democracy, populism and policy.
-— Written by WikleBot. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources below.
+* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
+* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
+* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
+* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
+* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
+* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].
+'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''
+Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.
+* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
+* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
+* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
+* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
+* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
+* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].
+'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''
+Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.
 == Sources ==
-# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
+# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
-# https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis
+# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
-# https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
-# https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
+# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
-# https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
-# https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
+# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
-# https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
-# https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
+# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated
+# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/man5gslt4zforzakwrs5y/johnsailer_subs.pdf?rlkey=3rpu6pqmektvckyf733qn3ksg&e=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&dl=0
+# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/
+# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac
+# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
+# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
+# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
+# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
+# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
 == Question ==