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=== What is the “epistemic crisis”?  ===
''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
The phrase refers to a perceived breakdown in the systems a society relies on to determine what is true. Symptoms include: 
'' declining trust in legacy media, scientific bodies, universities, and other traditional authorities [2] [4] [10] 
'' growing belief that these authorities not only make honest mistakes but systematically mislead or gate-keep information [3] [6] 
'' a public sphere where partisan narratives, motivated reasoning and algorithm-driven amplification often outrun careful fact-finding [1] [7] 


Arnold Kling is sceptical that the crisis is wholly new—he argues that pluralistic democracies have always contained “competing information factions,” but social media has made the clash more visible [1]. Dan Williams, Nate Silver and others reply that recent institutional failures have been unusually conspicuous, producing a qualitative shift in public confidence [2] [3] [4].
'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''


=== What caused the crisis?  ===
An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].
Authors lay the blame on overlapping factors.


# '''Elite-level mistakes and reversals''' – High-profile errors (see next section) undermined the presumption that credentialed experts deserve deference [3] [4] [10]. 
'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''
# '''Homogeneity and groupthink inside major institutions''' – Political and cultural monocultures reduce error-checking, so entire newsrooms or scientific bodies can move “in unison” and be wrong together [7] [14] [15]. 
# '''Structural media change''' – The internet removed geographic scarcity and economic bundling, rewarding speed, outrage and in-group signalling over slow verification [2] [12]. 
# '''Replication and methodological crises in science''' – Psychology, biomedicine and other fields reported failure rates of 50–75 percent in replication attempts, tarnishing the image of “settled science” [8] [16]. 
# '''Epistemic overreach''' – Scientific or journalistic organisations endorse policy or moral positions that outrun their data, turning empirical authorities into partisan actors [5] [17]. 


=== Examples of elite failures commonly cited as triggers  ===
Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.


'' 2003: U.S. and allied intelligence claimed Iraq possessed WMD; post-invasion inspections found none, damaging trust in both intelligence agencies and the prestige press that echoed them [2] [3].   
* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].   
'' 2008: Financial regulators and leading economists failed to foresee—or quickly explain—the global financial crisis, prompting doubts about technocratic expertise [3] [10]. 
* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].   
'' 2015-18: The “replication crisis” revealed that a majority of canonical psychology findings could not be reproduced [8].   
* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].   
'' 2016: Media data analysts assigned extremely low probabilities to a Trump victory, then offered few institutional mea-culpas after the surprise result [4].   
* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].   
'' 2020-21: Early public-health guidance against masking, followed by mandates, plus shifting statements on school closures and the lab-leak hypothesis, created a sense that official messaging tracked politics rather than evidence [4] [6] [10].   
* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].   
'' 2020-23: Twitter Files, Facebook moderation leaks and whistle-blower accounts showed coordinated removal or throttling of content later judged credible (e.g., Hunter Biden laptop, adverse-event discussions) [6] [10] [15].   
* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].
'' 2023-24: Internal critiques at the New York Times and NPR alleged a culture that punishes dissent and conflates activism with reporting, further eroding cross-partisan trust [14] [15].


=== Timeline of the public discourse  ===
'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''


'' '''2016''' – “Fake news” enters mainstream vocabulary; Boston Review warns that the panic itself can be exploited by elites to police speech [12]. 
Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.
'' '''2017–2019''' – Replication-crisis papers and conferences proliferate; term “epistemic crisis” begins appearing in blogs and think-tank pieces [8]. 
'' '''2020''' – COVID-19 controversies supercharge the discussion; Substack and podcast boom provides alternate venues for expert dissent.
'' '''Mar 2021''' – Arnold Kling publishes “An Epistemic Crisis?” arguing that the problem is less disinformation than “warring epistemic tribes” [1]. 
'' '''Jan 2022''' – Dan Williams’ “America’s epistemological crisis” foregrounds elite error as the key driver [2]. 
'' '''Jun 2023''' – Nate Silver’s essay “The expert class is failing—and so” makes the issue mainstream among data journalists [4]. 
'' '''Dec 2023''' – The Economist’s feature on the New York Times institutional culture signals that even establishment outlets recognise the problem [14]. 
'' '''Apr 2024''' – NPR editor Uri Berliner publishes whistle-blower account; public media trust debate intensifies [15]. 
'' '''May 2024''' – Matt Yglesias’ “Elite misinformation is an underrated problem” expands the conversation beyond conservative circles [10].


=== Conflicting assessments   ===
* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review. 
* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9]. 
* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15]. 
* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20]. 
* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19]. 
* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].


'' Kling maintains that the crisis is “epistemic” mainly in perception; institutions have always erred but now face relentless digital scrutiny [1]. 
'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''
'' Williams, Silver and Harris counter that error frequency and the refusal to self-correct mark a genuine decline in epistemic reliability [2] [4] [6]. 
'' Kahn argues that no amount of fact-checking will suffice unless society clarifies “who owes deference to whom” and why—that is, we need shared epistemic norms more than new platforms [5]. 


— Written by WikleBot. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources below.
Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.


== Sources ==
== Sources ==
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
# https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/man5gslt4zforzakwrs5y/johnsailer_subs.pdf?rlkey=3rpu6pqmektvckyf733qn3ksg&e=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&dl=0
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
# https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
# https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
# https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)


== Question ==
== Question ==
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