What is the epistemic crisis?

Latest revision as of 04:00, 1 May 2025

Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.

What is the epistemic crisis?

An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].

What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.

Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
“Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].

What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?

Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.

Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].

Conflicting views and ongoing discourse

Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.

Sources[edit]

Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (Long-running survey report)
Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018 research report / policy study)
Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023 survey report)
An Epistemic Crisis? – In My Tribe (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
America’s Epistemological Crisis – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Silver Bulletin (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Kahn (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
The Reckoning – Sam Harris (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
Why the Media Moves in Unison – Persuasion (Opinion / Essay)
75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – Unsafe Science (Substack) (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Slow Boring (Opinion / Essay)
The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (Long-form analysis / Essay)
How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (Substack) (Commentary / Media criticism)
When the New York Times Lost Its Way – 1843 Magazine (The Economist) (Magazine feature)
I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (First-person essay / Media criticism)
Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (Substack) (Commentary essay)

Question[edit]

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
-=== The epistemic crisis ===
+'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''
-The term “epistemic crisis” refers to a widespread breakdown in the institutions, norms and practices that people rely on to know what is true about the world. Commentators argue that citizens no longer trust the media, experts, or even their own political allies to supply reliable information, and therefore struggle to make collective decisions based on shared facts [1] [2] [5].
-Causes
+An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].
-Because the phrase is broad, authors stress different mechanisms that create the crisis. The main explanations can be grouped into three overlapping themes:
-* Elite failure and institutional error. Repeated mistakes by government agencies, the press, public-health authorities, and academic science have eroded the public’s confidence in these elites [3] [4] [8] [10] [14] [15].
+'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''
-* Political and cultural incentives. Polarised audiences reward partisan or ideologically conformist messages, pushing institutions to adopt group-aligned narratives instead of truth-seeking ones [2] [6] [7] [12] [16] [17].
+Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.
-* Information-environment shocks. Social media and the 24-hour news cycle amplify bad information faster than gatekeepers can correct it, leaving citizens in “epistemic chaos” [1] [5] [7].
+* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
+* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
+* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
+* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
+* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
+* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].
-Some authors emphasise elite responsibility (e.g., Silver, Williams), while others focus more on structural media incentives (e.g., Harris, Kling). There is no consensus on which factor dominates, but most agree the factors reinforce one another.
+'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''
-Examples of elite failure that fed the crisis
+Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.
-The literature highlights a recurring pattern: respected institutions make confident factual claims that later prove exaggerated, misleading, or false, encouraging public scepticism.
-* Public-health messaging. Conflicting statements about mask effectiveness, vaccine transmission, and lab-leak hypotheses led even ideologically aligned audiences to doubt health authorities [4] [6] [10].
+* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
+* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
+* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
+* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
+* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
+* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].
-* Social-science replication. Meta-analyses showing that a majority of headline-grabbing psychology findings fail to replicate revealed quality-control problems in academia [8].
+'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''
-* Media groupthink. The New York Times’ internal controversies over opinion pieces, and NPR’s perceived partisan drift, are cited as examples of news outlets privileging ideological conformity over open debate [14] [15].
+Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.
-* Intelligence and foreign-policy errors. Debates over WMD claims in Iraq (2003) and Afghanistan withdrawal assessments (2021) are treated as historic antecedents of current distrust [3] [4].
-* “Laptop” and “lab-leak” coverage. Early dismissal of the Hunter-Biden-laptop story or the Wuhan lab-leak hypothesis, followed by later partial confirmations, reinforced perceptions that elites colour factual judgments with political sympathies [10] [12] [13].
-* Scientific organisations’ political endorsements. When authoritative bodies openly endorse candidates, it signals partisanship and weakens perceived neutrality [17].
-Timeline of the public discourse
-The phrase “epistemic crisis” gained traction after 2016 but the argument predates it. A simplified timeline of key discussion points in the sources:
-* 2016–2017: Post-election soul-searching about “fake news” and filter bubbles; early warnings of an emerging epistemic crisis [1] [12].
-* 2018–2019: Replication crises in psychology and biomedicine become front-page news, cementing the idea that even scientific journals are unreliable [8].
-* 2020: COVID-19 accelerates distrust. Mask guidance reversals and suppression of lab-leak discussions spark criticism of public-health elites [6] [10].
-* 2021–2022: Substack boom. Journalists and academics migrate to independent platforms (Williams, Harris, Singal) to critique legacy media’s conformity [2] [6] [13].
-* 2023: Debate broadens to “elite failure” generally; Silver and Williams publish essays arguing that expert class performance is deteriorating [3] [4].
-* 2024: NPR editor’s whistle-blowing, further critiques of The New York Times, and new empirical work on the politicisation-trust link reinforce the narrative [15] [16] [14].
-Points of disagreement among authors
-* Scope. Kling argues that the crisis is exaggerated and mostly a perception problem [1], whereas Williams and Silver describe it as severe and accelerating [2] [4].
-* Blame. Some stress structural incentives (Harris, Khan) [5] [6]; others foreground elite incompetence or ideological capture (Williams, Silver, Sailer) [3] [11].
-* Remedies. Proposals range from renewing professional norms inside institutions [7] to building parallel knowledge networks outside them [5]. None agree on a single solution.
-In sum, the epistemic crisis is the growing inability of citizens to agree on credible sources of factual information. It is driven by elite mistakes, partisan incentives, and technological change, and it manifests in repeated episodes where authoritative claims collapse under scrutiny.
 == Sources ==
-# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
+# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
-# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
+# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
-# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
-# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
+# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
-# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
-# https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
+# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
-# https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
-# https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
+# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated
+# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/man5gslt4zforzakwrs5y/johnsailer_subs.pdf?rlkey=3rpu6pqmektvckyf733qn3ksg&e=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&dl=0
+# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/
+# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac
+# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
-# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
+# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
-# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
+# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
-# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
+# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
-# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse - Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
+# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
+# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
 == Question ==