What is the epistemic crisis?: Difference between revisions

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~~== Question ==~~

''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''

* What is the epistemic crisis?

* What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''

An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].

'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''

Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.

~~== Sources ==~~

* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].

* ~~https://arnoldkling~~.~~substack~~.~~com/p/an-epistemic-crisis~~

* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].

* ~~https://www~~.~~conspicuouscognition~~.~~com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis~~

* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].

* ~~https://www~~.~~conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures~~-and~~-populist-backlash~~

* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].

* ~~https://www.natesilver~~.~~net/p/~~the~~-expert-class-is-failing-~~and~~-so~~

* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].

* ~~https://samkahn~~.~~substack~~.~~com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid~~

* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].

* ~~https://samharris~~.~~substack~~.~~com/p/the-reckoning~~

x

~~== Answer from Wikle ==~~

'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''

~~The~~ epistemic crisis refers to the current state of societal inability to distinguish truth from falsehood or to agree upon shared knowledge and facts. The crisis is marked by a breakdown of epistemology, which is the philosophical study of knowledge, truth, and beliefs. It is characterized by a lack of trust in institutions, experts, and traditional sources of facts, leading to the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories, polarization, and a general confusion about what is true and what isn't.

~~According~~ to the sources~~, there are several causes of the epistemic crisis:~~

Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.

1. ~~Failure~~ of the ~~Expert Class: Nate Silver suggests that the expert class's inability to effectively communicate~~, ~~along with numerous high~~-~~profile expert failures~~, ~~has led to a decline in public trust. This has created a vacuum filled by misinformation~~ and ~~unsubstantiated opinions~~. ~~He argues~~ that ~~experts often fail to acknowledge~~ the ~~limitations~~ of ~~their knowledge~~ and ~~are unable to communicate uncertainty effectively~~, ~~leading to mistrust when their predictions or assertions prove incorrect~~.

* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.

* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].

* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].

* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].

* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].

* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].

~~2. Elite Failures~~ and Populist Backlash: The author at Conspicuous Cognition points out that the epistemic crisis is also a result of elite failures and a populist backlash against them. The failure of elites to manage key societal issues effectively and their perceived corruption has eroded trust in institutions and paved the way for populist movements that reject expertise and often propagate misinformation.

'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''

3. ~~Social Media~~ and ~~the Internet: Both~~ Arnold Kling ~~and Sam Kahn note~~ that the internet ~~and social media have exacerbated the epistemic crisis~~. ~~The internet has democratized information~~, ~~allowing anyone to publish their views~~ and ~~making it harder to distinguish between reliable~~ and ~~unreliable sources~~. ~~Social media algorithms often prioritize engagement over truth, leading~~ to ~~the spread of misinformation~~.

Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.

4. ~~Polarization~~ and ~~Identity Politics~~: Sam Harris ~~argues that~~ the ~~epistemic~~ crisis is ~~also driven by increasing political polarization and identity politics~~. ~~These forces create echo chambers and promote tribal thinking~~, ~~which undermines~~ the ~~pursuit of objective truth~~.

== Sources ==

# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)

# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)

# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)

# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)

# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)

# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)

# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)

# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)

# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)

# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)

~~In summary, the authors agree that~~ the epistemic crisis is ~~a multifaceted issue resulting from failures~~ of ~~experts and elites,~~ the ~~influence~~ of ~~social media, and increasing societal polarization. However, they prioritize different factors, suggesting that~~ the crisis~~'s causes are complex and interrelated.~~

== Question ==

What is the epistemic crisis?

What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-== Question ==
+''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
-* What is the epistemic crisis?
-* What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
+'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''
+An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].
+'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''
+Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.
-== Sources ==
+* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
-* https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis
+* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
-* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis
+* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
-* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash
+* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
-* https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
+* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
-* https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
+* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].
-* https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
-x
-== Answer from Wikle ==
+'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''
-The epistemic crisis refers to the current state of societal inability to distinguish truth from falsehood or to agree upon shared knowledge and facts. The crisis is marked by a breakdown of epistemology, which is the philosophical study of knowledge, truth, and beliefs. It is characterized by a lack of trust in institutions, experts, and traditional sources of facts, leading to the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories, polarization, and a general confusion about what is true and what isn't.
-According to the sources, there are several causes of the epistemic crisis:
+Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.
-. Failure of the Expert Class: Nate Silver suggests that the expert class's inability to effectively communicate, along with numerous high-profile expert failures, has led to a decline in public trust. This has created a vacuum filled by misinformation and unsubstantiated opinions. He argues that experts often fail to acknowledge the limitations of their knowledge and are unable to communicate uncertainty effectively, leading to mistrust when their predictions or assertions prove incorrect.
+* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
+* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
+* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
+* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
+* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
+* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].
-. Elite Failures and Populist Backlash: The author at Conspicuous Cognition points out that the epistemic crisis is also a result of elite failures and a populist backlash against them. The failure of elites to manage key societal issues effectively and their perceived corruption has eroded trust in institutions and paved the way for populist movements that reject expertise and often propagate misinformation.
+'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''
-. Social Media and the Internet: Both Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn note that the internet and social media have exacerbated the epistemic crisis. The internet has democratized information, allowing anyone to publish their views and making it harder to distinguish between reliable and unreliable sources. Social media algorithms often prioritize engagement over truth, leading to the spread of misinformation.
+Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.
-. Polarization and Identity Politics: Sam Harris argues that the epistemic crisis is also driven by increasing political polarization and identity politics. These forces create echo chambers and promote tribal thinking, which undermines the pursuit of objective truth.
+== Sources ==
+# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
+# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
+# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
+# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
+# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
+# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
+# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
+# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
+# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
-In summary, the authors agree that the epistemic crisis is a multifaceted issue resulting from failures of experts and elites, the influence of social media, and increasing societal polarization. However, they prioritize different factors, suggesting that the crisis's causes are complex and interrelated.
+== Question ==
+What is the epistemic crisis?
+What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
+What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?