What is the epistemic crisis?: Difference between revisions

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~~== Question ==~~

''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''

* What is the epistemic crisis?

* What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''

* What are some examples of elite failure?

An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].

'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''

~~== Sources ==~~

Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.

* https://arnoldkling.~~substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis~~

* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis

* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash

* https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so

* https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid

* https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning

~~== Answer from Wikle ==~~

* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].

The ~~epistemic crisis refers to~~ a ~~state~~ of ~~societal upheaval or conflict resulting from~~ a ~~widespread distrust or skepticism about~~ the ~~sources, validity~~, and ~~reliability~~ of ~~knowledge~~. ~~It's a crisis~~ of ~~knowing~~, ~~a breakdown in~~ the ~~way society agrees on what is true and what is not~~.

* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].

* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].

* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].

* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].

* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].

~~The causes~~ of the epistemic crisis ~~are numerous and complex, and the authors of these sources offer different perspectives:~~

'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''

~~1. Arnold Kling argues that the crisis is rooted in a collapse of~~ institutional ~~trust and that this collapse is connected~~ to ~~the fact that institutions~~ have ~~become politicized~~. ~~Institutions have become opaque, less accountable, and have failed to adapt to~~ the ~~internet age, leading to a breakdown in trust~~.

Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.

2. ~~Sam Kahn points to~~ the ~~rise~~ of ~~social~~ media and ~~the internet~~ as ~~a significant contributor to the crisis~~. ~~He argues that~~ the ~~internet has democratized access to information~~, ~~which has led to a flood~~ of ~~misinformation and disinformation~~. ~~This abundance of information makes it difficult to discern what is true~~ and ~~what is~~ not.

* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.

* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].

* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].

* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].

* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].

* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].

~~3. Nate Silver cites a failure of the expert class as a significant cause. Overconfidence, lack of humility,~~ and ~~a tendency to overlook non-expert perspectives have led to a series of high-profile failures that have undermined trust in expertise.~~

'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''

4. ~~The authors~~ at ~~Conspicuous Cognition~~ argue ~~that~~ the ~~crisis~~ is ~~rooted in a broad societal shift towards postmodernism~~ and ~~relativism, which has led~~ to a ~~rejection of objective truth and a focus on individual perspectives and experiences~~.

Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.

5. Sam Harris ~~suggests that~~ the crisis is ~~rooted in a deeper philosophical problem~~: ~~a failure~~ to ~~recognize that beliefs should be based on evidence and reason~~, ~~not identity or ideology~~. ~~This has led to a polarization of society where different groups have different sets of facts~~.

== Sources ==

# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)

# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)

# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)

# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)

# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)

# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)

# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)

# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)

# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)

# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)

~~In sum,~~ the epistemic crisis is ~~caused by a complex interplay of factors including~~ the ~~politicization~~ of ~~institutions,~~ the ~~rise~~ of ~~social media and~~ the ~~internet, failures of~~ the ~~expert class, societal shifts towards postmodernism and relativism, and a failure to base beliefs on evidence and reason.~~

== Question ==

What is the epistemic crisis?

What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-== Question ==
+''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
-* What is the epistemic crisis?
-* What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
+'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''
-* What are some examples of elite failure?
+An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].
+'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''
-== Sources ==
+Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.
-* https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis
-* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis
-* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash
-* https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
-* https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
-* https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
-== Answer from Wikle ==
+* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
-The epistemic crisis refers to a state of societal upheaval or conflict resulting from a widespread distrust or skepticism about the sources, validity, and reliability of knowledge. It's a crisis of knowing, a breakdown in the way society agrees on what is true and what is not.
+* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
+* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
+* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
+* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
+* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].
-The causes of the epistemic crisis are numerous and complex, and the authors of these sources offer different perspectives:
+'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''
-. Arnold Kling argues that the crisis is rooted in a collapse of institutional trust and that this collapse is connected to the fact that institutions have become politicized. Institutions have become opaque, less accountable, and have failed to adapt to the internet age, leading to a breakdown in trust.
+Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.
-. Sam Kahn points to the rise of social media and the internet as a significant contributor to the crisis. He argues that the internet has democratized access to information, which has led to a flood of misinformation and disinformation. This abundance of information makes it difficult to discern what is true and what is not.
+* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
+* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
+* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
+* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
+* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
+* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].
-. Nate Silver cites a failure of the expert class as a significant cause. Overconfidence, lack of humility, and a tendency to overlook non-expert perspectives have led to a series of high-profile failures that have undermined trust in expertise.
+'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''
-. The authors at Conspicuous Cognition argue that the crisis is rooted in a broad societal shift towards postmodernism and relativism, which has led to a rejection of objective truth and a focus on individual perspectives and experiences.
+Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.
-. Sam Harris suggests that the crisis is rooted in a deeper philosophical problem: a failure to recognize that beliefs should be based on evidence and reason, not identity or ideology. This has led to a polarization of society where different groups have different sets of facts.
+== Sources ==
+# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
+# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
+# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
+# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
+# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
+# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
+# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
+# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
+# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
-In sum, the epistemic crisis is caused by a complex interplay of factors including the politicization of institutions, the rise of social media and the internet, failures of the expert class, societal shifts towards postmodernism and relativism, and a failure to base beliefs on evidence and reason.
+== Question ==
+What is the epistemic crisis?
+What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
+What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?