What is the epistemic crisis?: Difference between revisions

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~~== Question ==~~

''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''

* What is the ~~epistemic crisis?~~

* What is ~~the cause of the epistemic crisis?~~

* What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

~~== Sources ==~~

'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''

* https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic~~-crisis~~

* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis

* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash

* https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so

* https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid

* https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning

* https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison

~~== Answer from Wikle ==~~

An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].

1. ~~What~~ is the ~~epistemic crisis?~~

~~The epistemic crisis refers to a state of societal confusion and mistrust about what to believe and who to trust for reliable information. It~~ is ~~a crisis in determining truth and knowledge, often characterized by widespread disagreement on fundamental facts,~~ the ~~dissemination and acceptance of misinformation, and a general erosion of trust in traditional sources~~ of ~~knowledge like~~ the ~~media, scientific community, and government.~~

'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''

2. ~~What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?~~

Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.

The ~~causes~~ of the ~~epistemic crisis are multifaceted~~ and ~~involve both societal~~ and ~~institutional factors~~.

* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].

* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].

* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].

* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].

* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].

* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].

~~Arnold Kling on his Substack blog points to the~~ failure ~~of elites and institutions in maintaining public trust and providing reliable information. Nate Silver also echoes this sentiment on his blog, highlighting~~ the ~~expert class~~'~~s failure in various fields like economy, health, and politics contributing to people~~'~~s lack of trust.~~

'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''

~~Sam Harris's Substack blog post argues that the crisis is also fueled by the polarization of media and the rise of social media platforms that enable the spread of misinformation~~. The ~~blog post by Conspicuous Cognition outlines~~ the ~~role of cognitive biases in fostering the crisis, as individuals are more likely to believe information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs and dismiss contradictory evidence~~.

Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.

3. ~~What~~ are ~~some~~ examples of elite ~~failure that caused the epistemic crisis?~~

* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.

* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].

* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].

* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].

* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].

* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].

Several examples highlight elite failures contributing to the epistemic crisis. Arnold Kling cites the 2008 financial crisis as a significant example, where economic experts failed to predict or prevent the crisis, leading to widespread distrust. Similarly, Nate Silver mentions the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic by health experts as another instance that eroded trust.

'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''

~~The post on Persuasion Community highlights instances~~ of ~~media moving~~ in ~~unison without critical evaluation~~, ~~such~~ as the ~~early dismissal of~~ the ~~lab-leak theory for COVID-19~~, ~~which was later considered plausible~~. ~~This kind of uncritical conformity can contribute~~ to ~~public mistrust~~.

Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.

~~The blog post on~~ Conspicuous Cognition ~~also mentions the~~ populist backlash ~~against~~ elite ~~failures~~, ~~where perceived incompetence or corruption of political elites fuels resentment and mistrust among~~ the ~~populace~~.

== Sources ==

# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)

# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)

# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)

# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)

# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)

# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)

# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)

# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)

# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)

# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)

# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)

# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)

# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)

~~It's important to note that these views~~ are ~~not universally agreed upon, and the perception~~ of "elite failure~~" can be influenced by political, ideological, and personal biases.~~

== Question ==

What is the epistemic crisis?

What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-== Question ==
+''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
-* What is the epistemic crisis?
-* What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
-* What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
-== Sources ==
+'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''
-* https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis
-* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis
-* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash
-* https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
-* https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
-* https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
-* https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison
-== Answer from Wikle ==
+An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].
-. What is the epistemic crisis?
-The epistemic crisis refers to a state of societal confusion and mistrust about what to believe and who to trust for reliable information. It is a crisis in determining truth and knowledge, often characterized by widespread disagreement on fundamental facts, the dissemination and acceptance of misinformation, and a general erosion of trust in traditional sources of knowledge like the media, scientific community, and government.
+'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''
-. What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
+Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.
-The causes of the epistemic crisis are multifaceted and involve both societal and institutional factors.
+* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
+* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
+* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
+* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
+* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
+* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].
-Arnold Kling on his Substack blog points to the failure of elites and institutions in maintaining public trust and providing reliable information. Nate Silver also echoes this sentiment on his blog, highlighting the expert class's failure in various fields like economy, health, and politics contributing to people's lack of trust.
+'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''
-Sam Harris's Substack blog post argues that the crisis is also fueled by the polarization of media and the rise of social media platforms that enable the spread of misinformation. The blog post by Conspicuous Cognition outlines the role of cognitive biases in fostering the crisis, as individuals are more likely to believe information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs and dismiss contradictory evidence.
+Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.
-. What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?
+* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
+* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
+* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
+* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
+* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
+* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].
-Several examples highlight elite failures contributing to the epistemic crisis. Arnold Kling cites the 2008 financial crisis as a significant example, where economic experts failed to predict or prevent the crisis, leading to widespread distrust. Similarly, Nate Silver mentions the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic by health experts as another instance that eroded trust.
+'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''
-The post on Persuasion Community highlights instances of media moving in unison without critical evaluation, such as the early dismissal of the lab-leak theory for COVID-19, which was later considered plausible. This kind of uncritical conformity can contribute to public mistrust.
+Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.
-The blog post on Conspicuous Cognition also mentions the populist backlash against elite failures, where perceived incompetence or corruption of political elites fuels resentment and mistrust among the populace.
+== Sources ==
+# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
+# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
+# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
+# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
+# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
+# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
+# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
+# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
+# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
+# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
-It's important to note that these views are not universally agreed upon, and the perception of "elite failure" can be influenced by political, ideological, and personal biases.
+== Question ==
+What is the epistemic crisis?
+What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
+What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?