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=== What is the “epistemic crisis”?  ===
''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
The phrase refers to a perceived breakdown in the systems a society relies on to determine what is true. Symptoms include: 
'' declining trust in legacy media, scientific bodies, universities, and other traditional authorities [2] [4] [10] 
'' growing belief that these authorities not only make honest mistakes but systematically mislead or gate-keep information [3] [6] 
'' a public sphere where partisan narratives, motivated reasoning and algorithm-driven amplification often outrun careful fact-finding [1] [7] 


Arnold Kling is sceptical that the crisis is wholly new—he argues that pluralistic democracies have always contained “competing information factions,” but social media has made the clash more visible [1]. Dan Williams, Nate Silver and others reply that recent institutional failures have been unusually conspicuous, producing a qualitative shift in public confidence [2] [3] [4].
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”''' 


=== What caused the crisis?  ===
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain.  Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:
Authors lay the blame on overlapping factors.   


# '''Elite-level mistakes and reversals''' – High-profile errors (see next section) undermined the presumption that credentialed experts deserve deference [3] [4] [10].  
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5]   
# '''Homogeneity and groupthink inside major institutions''' – Political and cultural monocultures reduce error-checking, so entire newsrooms or scientific bodies can move “in unison” and be wrong together [7] [14] [15].  
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13]   
# '''Structural media change''' – The internet removed geographic scarcity and economic bundling, rewarding speed, outrage and in-group signalling over slow verification [2] [12].  
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1]   
# '''Replication and methodological crises in science''' – Psychology, biomedicine and other fields reported failure rates of 50–75 percent in replication attempts, tarnishing the image of “settled science” [8] [16]. 
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]   
# '''Epistemic overreach''' – Scientific or journalistic organisations endorse policy or moral positions that outrun their data, turning empirical authorities into partisan actors [5] [17].  


=== Examples of elite failures commonly cited as triggers  ===
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.


'' 2003: U.S. and allied intelligence claimed Iraq possessed WMD; post-invasion inspections found none, damaging trust in both intelligence agencies and the prestige press that echoed them [2] [3]. 
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''
'' 2008: Financial regulators and leading economists failed to foresee—or quickly explain—the global financial crisis, prompting doubts about technocratic expertise [3] [10]. 
'' 2015-18: The “replication crisis” revealed that a majority of canonical psychology findings could not be reproduced [8]. 
'' 2016: Media data analysts assigned extremely low probabilities to a Trump victory, then offered few institutional mea-culpas after the surprise result [4]. 
'' 2020-21: Early public-health guidance against masking, followed by mandates, plus shifting statements on school closures and the lab-leak hypothesis, created a sense that official messaging tracked politics rather than evidence [4] [6] [10]. 
'' 2020-23: Twitter Files, Facebook moderation leaks and whistle-blower accounts showed coordinated removal or throttling of content later judged credible (e.g., Hunter Biden laptop, adverse-event discussions) [6] [10] [15]. 
'' 2023-24: Internal critiques at the New York Times and NPR alleged a culture that punishes dissent and conflates activism with reporting, further eroding cross-partisan trust [14] [15]. 


=== Timeline of the public discourse  ===
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3]. 
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5]. 
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2]. 
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4]. 
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].


'' '''2016''' – “Fake news” enters mainstream vocabulary; Boston Review warns that the panic itself can be exploited by elites to police speech [12]. 
'''How the discussion divides'''
'' '''2017–2019''' – Replication-crisis papers and conferences proliferate; term “epistemic crisis” begins appearing in blogs and think-tank pieces [8]. 
'' '''2020''' – COVID-19 controversies supercharge the discussion; Substack and podcast boom provides alternate venues for expert dissent. 
'' '''Mar 2021''' – Arnold Kling publishes “An Epistemic Crisis?” arguing that the problem is less disinformation than “warring epistemic tribes” [1]. 
'' '''Jan 2022''' – Dan Williams’ “America’s epistemological crisis” foregrounds elite error as the key driver [2]. 
'' '''Jun 2023''' – Nate Silver’s essay “The expert class is failing—and so” makes the issue mainstream among data journalists [4]. 
'' '''Dec 2023''' – The Economist’s feature on the New York Times institutional culture signals that even establishment outlets recognise the problem [14]. 
'' '''Apr 2024''' – NPR editor Uri Berliner publishes whistle-blower account; public media trust debate intensifies [15]. 
'' '''May 2024''' – Matt Yglesias’ “Elite misinformation is an underrated problem” expands the conversation beyond conservative circles [10]. 


=== Conflicting assessments  ===
# “Institutional failure first” view 
  Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].


'' Kling maintains that the crisis is “epistemic” mainly in perception; institutions have always erred but now face relentless digital scrutiny [1].  
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view  
'' Williams, Silver and Harris counter that error frequency and the refusal to self-correct mark a genuine decline in epistemic reliability [2] [4] [6].
  Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].
'' Kahn argues that no amount of fact-checking will suffice unless society clarifies “who owes deference to whom” and why—that is, we need shared epistemic norms more than new platforms [5]. 


— Written by WikleBot. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources below.
# “Epistemology itself” view 
  Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].


== Sources ==
# Sceptical or minimising view 
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
  A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship. They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
# https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
# https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
# https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
# https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison
# https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false
# https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
# https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated
# https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/man5gslt4zforzakwrs5y/johnsailer_subs.pdf?rlkey=3rpu6pqmektvckyf733qn3ksg&e=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&dl=0
# https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/
# https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1
# https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse


== Question ==
'''Why it matters'''
What is the epistemic crisis?  
 
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder. 
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.
 
'''Suggested responses under debate'''
 
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4]. 
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19]. 
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].
 
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.
 
'''Sources'''
 
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust 
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse
 
== Suggested Sources ==
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
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