What is the epistemic crisis?

Latest revision as of 22:27, 3 May 2025

Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.

What is the epistemic crisis?

An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].

What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.

Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
“Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].

What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?

Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.

Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].

Conflicting views and ongoing discourse

Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.

Sources[edit]

Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (Long-running survey report)
Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018 research report / policy study)
Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023 survey report)
An Epistemic Crisis? – In My Tribe (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
America’s Epistemological Crisis – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Silver Bulletin (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Kahn (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
The Reckoning – Sam Harris (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
Why the Media Moves in Unison – Persuasion (Opinion / Essay)
75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – Unsafe Science (Substack) (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Slow Boring (Opinion / Essay)
The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (Long-form analysis / Essay)
How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (Substack) (Commentary / Media criticism)
When the New York Times Lost Its Way – 1843 Magazine (The Economist) (Magazine feature)
I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (First-person essay / Media criticism)
Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (Substack) (Commentary essay)

Question[edit]

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
-=== What is the “epistemic crisis”? ===
+'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''
-The phrase refers to a breakdown in shared methods for distinguishing true from false claims in public life.  Commentators argue that citizens no longer agree on which institutions, experts, or procedures deserve trust, leading to fragmented “epistemic authorities” and persistent political conflict [1] [2] [5] [19].  Symptoms include decline in confidence in government, media, science and other elite institutions, a rise in mutually incompatible “information bubbles,” and growing doubt that evidence or expertise can settle controversial questions [6] [12] [18].
+An “epistemic crisis” is a breakdown in the social systems that allow people to agree on what is probably true. Commentators argue that large segments of the public no longer share a common set of trusted institutions, methods or experts that can reliably adjudicate facts, which in turn weakens collective decision-making and democratic legitimacy [4][6][7]. Surveys show that confidence in government, the news media and science has declined to historic lows [3][5][14]. Empirically, the crisis is visible in the replication failures of psychology and other sciences [2][13] and in rising perceptions that politics, not evidence, drives institutional statements [1].
-=== Causes identified in the literature ===
+'''What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?'''
-* Elite performance problems.  From the Iraq-WMD error to 2008 financial oversight failures, high-salience mistakes have reduced the perceived reliability of the expert class [3] [4] [10].
+Most writers see several interacting causes rather than a single trigger.
-* Media homogenization and ideological sorting.  National outlets increasingly share the same cultural milieu and social networks, causing story selection and framing to move “in unison” and appear partisan to outsiders [7] [14] [15].
+* Politicization of expertise. Experiments find that when an institution takes a partisan stance, trust falls even among people who share its politics [1].
+* Declining reproducibility and transparency in research. The 2015 “Reproducibility Project” replicated only 36 % of 100 prominent psychology findings [2]; commentators translate this into a generalized suspicion that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].
+* “Truth Decay.” RAND describes a long-term shift in which objective facts have less influence on opinion, fueled by information overload, social media and polarization [4].
+* Media homogeneity and economic pressures. Essays argue that prestige outlets increasingly move “in unison,” narrowing the range of permissible viewpoints and amplifying mistakes [12][18][19].
+* Elite performance failures. Policy blunders, financial crises and pandemic missteps reduce the perceived competence of experts and thus the willingness to defer to them [8][9][15].
+* Feedback loop of distrust. Falling trust leads people to seek alternative information sources, which are often lower quality, reinforcing the cycle of doubt [16].
-* Reproducibility crises in science.  Large replication efforts show that the majority of highly cited psychology papers do not replicate, eroding confidence in peer review and academic claims [8].
+'''What are some examples of elite failure that caused the epistemic crisis?'''
-* Politicization of neutral bodies.  When scientific societies or newsrooms take explicit ideological stands, even co-partisans report lower trust; institutional neutrality is a fragile public good [16] [17].
+Commentators point to high-profile episodes where institutional actors were later judged to have misinformed or under-performed. The list below focuses on cases repeatedly cited across the sources.
-* Information abundance.  Social media allows rapid, low-cost publication of any claim, overwhelming traditional gatekeepers and letting motivated reasoning flourish [12] [19].
+* Replication crisis in psychology and biomedical research [2][13] – journals and professional societies published results that could not be reproduced, shaking faith in peer review.
+* Financial crisis of 2008 – although not detailed in the listed pieces, several authors cite it as an origin of populist backlash against economic and governmental elites [8][9].
+* COVID-19 policy communication – Substack essays accuse health agencies and media of oscillating messages on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects, eroding credibility [6][9][15].
+* Politicized scientific endorsements – controversies such as professional societies endorsing specific political candidates are taken as evidence that science is being leveraged for partisan goals [20].
+* Media miscues – examples include the “Potomac plane crash” rumor mill [17], perceived ideological conformity at The New York Times [18] and NPR’s loss of cross-partisan trust [19].
+* Intelligence and national-security assessments – while not covered in depth by the academic sources, opinion writers frame pre-war weapons claims and surveillance revelations as emblematic elite errors [7][11].
-Authors differ on relative weighting.  Nate Silver stresses forecasting errors and institutional group-think [4]; Arnold Kling emphasizes the gulf between “expert” and “folk” epistemologies [1]; Sam Harris highlights media incentives and partisan bias that reverse the normal burden of proof [6].  Dan Williams focuses on structural elite failure and populist backlash [2] [3].
+'''Conflicting views and ongoing discourse'''
-=== Examples of elite failures frequently cited ===
+Not everyone accepts the “crisis” framing. Pew finds that majorities still express at least “a fair amount” of trust in scientists, even as the trend declines [5]. Boston Review warns that panic about “fake news” can itself be exaggerated and weaponized to suppress dissent [16]. Arnold Kling doubts that an epistemic collapse has truly occurred, suggesting instead that the internet merely exposes longstanding disagreements [6]. Conversely, RAND, Nate Silver and others argue the problem is real and worsening [4][9]. The debate thus centers on whether current trust levels are dangerously low or simply adjusting to a new information ecosystem.
-* Iraq War intelligence (2002-03): bipartisan expert consensus on WMD proved unfounded, catalyzing general skepticism about national-security expertise [3].
-* Global financial crisis (2007-09): regulators, rating agencies and macro-economists missed systemic risk, undermining trust in technocratic competence [4] [10].
-* COVID-19 messaging (2020-21): shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures, and lab-leak debates showcased inconsistent expert communication [4] [6] [10].
-* Replication crises (2010-present): large‐scale failures to reproduce landmark findings in psychology and other fields [8] have prompted questions about the broader scientific knowledge-production process.
-* Media reporting missteps: the “lab-leak” dismissal, Hunter Biden laptop suppression, and retracted stories at major outlets have become case studies in newsroom group-think and confirmation bias [4] [7] [14] [15].
-=== Public discourse & timeline (selected milestones) ===
-–2008: Iraq War and the financial crash spark early claims that elites are “epistemically unmoored.”
-–2015: Academic replication projects (Open Science Collaboration, 2015) reveal widespread non-replication in psychology [8]. RAND introduces the term “Truth Decay” (2018) [19].
-: Brexit and the U.S. election intensify discussion around “fake news” and partisan epistemologies [12].
-: COVID-19 controversies push “epistemic crisis” into mainstream commentary; Substack essays by Kling [1] and Williams [2] synthesize the problem.
-–2024: Investigations of media performance (Economist NYT piece [14], Free Press NPR essay [15]) and polling on collapsing trust in government and media (Pew 2024 [18]) keep the debate active. Silver’s 2024 analysis connects elite forecasting errors to declining presidential approval [4].
-=== Conflicting views ===
-While most authors agree that trust is falling, they dispute solutions.  Kling favors decentralization of expertise [1]; Williams argues for institutional reform that re-aligns elite incentives [2]; Harris calls for stronger professional norms and transparency [6]; Silver urges humility and empirical accountability in the expert class [4].  Some, like Sam Khan, argue the crisis is overstated and primarily a matter of epistemic hygiene rather than institutional collapse [5].
-=== Summary ===
-The epistemic crisis refers to the erosion of shared standards for evaluating truth claims, driven by repeated elite failures, politicization of institutions, and an information environment that rewards partisanship over accuracy.  Its consequences—rising polarization, distrust, and policy gridlock—continue to dominate scholarly and journalistic debate.
 == Sources ==
-# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
+# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
-# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
+# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
-# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
-# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
+# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
-# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
+# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
-# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
+# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
-# https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false
+# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
-# https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
+# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated
+# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/man5gslt4zforzakwrs5y/johnsailer_subs.pdf?rlkey=3rpu6pqmektvckyf733qn3ksg&e=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&dl=0
+# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/
+# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
-# https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac
+# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
-# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
+# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
-# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
+# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
-# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
+# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
-# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse - Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
+# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
-# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
+# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
-# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
+# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
+# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
 == Question ==