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=== What is the “epistemic crisis”? ===
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”''' 


The phrase refers to a breakdown in shared methods for distinguishing true from false claims in public life.  Commentators argue that citizens no longer agree on which institutions, experts, or procedures deserve trust, leading to fragmented “epistemic authorities” and persistent political conflict [1] [2] [5] [19].  Symptoms include decline in confidence in government, media, science and other elite institutions, a rise in mutually incompatible “information bubbles,” and growing doubt that evidence or expertise can settle controversial questions [6] [12] [18].
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain.  Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:


=== Causes identified in the literature ===
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5] 
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] 
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1] 
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15] 


* Elite performance problems.  From the Iraq-WMD error to 2008 financial oversight failures, high-salience mistakes have reduced the perceived reliability of the expert class [3] [4] [10].
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.


* Media homogenization and ideological sorting.  National outlets increasingly share the same cultural milieu and social networks, causing story selection and framing to move “in unison” and appear partisan to outsiders [7] [14] [15]. 
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''


* Reproducibility crises in science.  Large replication efforts show that the majority of highly cited psychology papers do not replicate, eroding confidence in peer review and academic claims [8].   
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3]. 
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5].   
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2]. 
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4].   
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].


* Politicization of neutral bodies.  When scientific societies or newsrooms take explicit ideological stands, even co-partisans report lower trust; institutional neutrality is a fragile public good [16] [17]. 
'''How the discussion divides'''


* Information abundance. Social media allows rapid, low-cost publication of any claim, overwhelming traditional gatekeepers and letting motivated reasoning flourish [12] [19].
# “Institutional failure first” view  
  Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].


Authors differ on relative weighting. Nate Silver stresses forecasting errors and institutional group-think [4]; Arnold Kling emphasizes the gulf between “expert” and “folk” epistemologies [1]; Sam Harris highlights media incentives and partisan bias that reverse the normal burden of proof [6].  Dan Williams focuses on structural elite failure and populist backlash [2] [3].
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view  
  Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].


=== Examples of elite failures frequently cited ===
# “Epistemology itself” view 
  Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].


* Iraq War intelligence (2002-03): bipartisan expert consensus on WMD proved unfounded, catalyzing general skepticism about national-security expertise [3].
# Sceptical or minimising view 
  A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship.  They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].


* Global financial crisis (2007-09): regulators, rating agencies and macro-economists missed systemic risk, undermining trust in technocratic competence [4] [10].
'''Why it matters'''


* COVID-19 messaging (2020-21): shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures, and lab-leak debates showcased inconsistent expert communication [4] [6] [10].
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder. 
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.


* Replication crises (2010-present): large‐scale failures to reproduce landmark findings in psychology and other fields [8] have prompted questions about the broader scientific knowledge-production process.
'''Suggested responses under debate'''


* Media reporting missteps: the “lab-leak” dismissal, Hunter Biden laptop suppression, and retracted stories at major outlets have become case studies in newsroom group-think and confirmation bias [4] [7] [14] [15].
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4]. 
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19]. 
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].


=== Public discourse & timeline (selected milestones) ===
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.


2003–2008: Iraq War and the financial crash spark early claims that elites are “epistemically unmoored.” 
'''Sources'''


2010–2015: Academic replication projects (Open Science Collaboration, 2015) reveal widespread non-replication in psychology [8]. RAND introduces the term “Truth Decay” (2018) [19].   
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust  
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse


2016: Brexit and the U.S. election intensify discussion around “fake news” and partisan epistemologies [12]. 
== Suggested Sources ==
 
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
2020: COVID-19 controversies push “epistemic crisis” into mainstream commentary; Substack essays by Kling [1] and Williams [2] synthesize the problem. 
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
 
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
2023–2024: Investigations of media performance (Economist NYT piece [14], Free Press NPR essay [15]) and polling on collapsing trust in government and media (Pew 2024 [18]) keep the debate active. Silver’s 2024 analysis connects elite forecasting errors to declining presidential approval [4].
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
 
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
=== Conflicting views ===
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
While most authors agree that trust is falling, they dispute solutions. Kling favors decentralization of expertise [1]; Williams argues for institutional reform that re-aligns elite incentives [2]; Harris calls for stronger professional norms and transparency [6]; Silver urges humility and empirical accountability in the expert class [4]. Some, like Sam Khan, argue the crisis is overstated and primarily a matter of epistemic hygiene rather than institutional collapse [5].
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
 
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
=== Summary ===
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
The epistemic crisis refers to the erosion of shared standards for evaluating truth claims, driven by repeated elite failures, politicization of institutions, and an information environment that rewards partisanship over accuracy.  Its consequences—rising polarization, distrust, and policy gridlock—continue to dominate scholarly and journalistic debate.
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
== Sources ==
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac - How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
#[https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]
 
== Question ==
What is the epistemic crisis?
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
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