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=== What is the “epistemic crisis”? ===
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”''' 


The phrase refers to a widespread breakdown in the social systems we once relied on to decide what is true.  Writers describe it as a loss of trust in expertise, journalism, science, and government, accompanied by the sense that society no longer agrees on basic facts or on who should be believed [1] [2] [3] [4] [17].  The crisis is not just an abundance of misinformation; it is a collapse of the institutions and norms that previously filtered misinformation out of public life.
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain.  Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:


Key features usually cited are:  
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5] 
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] 
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1] 
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]  


* Polarization of information sources. 
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.
* Erosion of reproducibility in science. 
* Politically-motivated messaging by media, government, and professional bodies. 
* Public uncertainty about how to evaluate expertise.


=== What caused the crisis? ===
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''


Most authors point to a convergence of structural, technological, and cultural forces:
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3]. 
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5]. 
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2]. 
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4]. 
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].


# Elite and institutional failures 
'''How the discussion divides'''
  • High-profile mistakes—e.g., pre-Iraq-War intelligence, the 2008 financial crisis, shifting public-health messaging—damaged confidence that elites are competent or honest [3] [6] [9]. 
  • When failure is followed by a lack of accountability, the legitimacy of the expert class erodes [4] [9].


# Media incentives and homogeneity  
# “Institutional failure first” view  
   • Legacy outlets face economic pressure to chase engagement, producing more opinionated and ideologically uniform coverage [7] [12]. 
   Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].
  • “Media swarm” dynamics mean many outlets repeat the same narrative, limiting corrective mechanisms [7].


# Social-media amplification  
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view  
   • Platforms reward attention, not accuracy, allowing errors by elites or amateurs to spread equally fast [1] [10].
   Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].


# Politicization of knowledge-producing institutions  
# “Epistemology itself” view  
   • Scientific societies, universities, and public broadcasters are perceived as taking partisan stances [14] [15] [13]. 
   Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].
  • A recent experimental study finds that explicit political cues reduce trust even among ideologically aligned audiences [14].


# Failures inside science itself  
# Sceptical or minimising view  
   • Large-scale replication projects suggest that a majority of published psychology findings do not replicate [8] [18], leading the public to doubt other disciplines as well.   
   A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship.  They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].
  • RAND’s “Truth Decay” report argues that the line between opinion and fact has blurred in both scholarship and media [17].


There is disagreement about emphasis: Kling and Williams stress institutional competence [1] [3]; Sam Harris focuses on moral and psychological factors [6]; Boston Review writers argue that worries about “fake news” are overstated compared with structural media problems [10].
'''Why it matters'''


=== Examples of elite failures that fed the crisis ===
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder. 
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.


* Psychology replication crisis (2015-present). A landmark Science paper found that only ~36 % of key results replicated [18]; subsequent reviews suggest the figure is closer to 25 % [8]. 
'''Suggested responses under debate'''


* Iraq War intelligence (2002-2003). Dan Williams lists it as an archetype of expert failure that seeded populist backlash [3].
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4]. 
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19].
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].


* 2008 financial crisis. Nate Silver and Williams cite regulators’ inability to foresee systemic risk as a blow to technocratic credibility [3] [4]. 
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.


* COVID-19 communication (2020-2022). Yglesias and Kling argue that shifting mask guidance, school-closure debates, and suppression of lab-leak discussion exemplified “elite misinformation” [1] [9]. 
'''Sources'''


* Media self-inflicted wounds.   
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
  – The New York Times’ internal culture clashes and narrative-driven reporting [12].  
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
  – NPR editor Uri Berliner’s account of journalistic groupthink [13].  
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
  – Bezos observes historically low trust in newspapers in general [9].
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false  
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way  
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust  
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse


* Politicized scientific advocacy. Stewart-Williams warns that professional societies’ candidate endorsements reduce perceived neutrality [15].
== Suggested Sources ==
 
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
=== Timeline of the public discourse ===
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
 
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
1990s – early 2000s 
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
* Cable news and the early Web fragment information channels.
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
 
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
2003-2008 
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
* Iraq War intelligence failures and the financial crisis begin long-term declines in trust in government measured by Pew [16].
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
 
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
2010-2015 
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
* Social media becomes dominant. “Truth Decay” identified by RAND (research began 2014, report 2018) [17]. 
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
* 2015: Reproducibility Project publishes in Science [18].
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
2016-2017 
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
* US election spurs focus on “fake news.” Boston Review critiques the panic [10].
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
2020-2022 
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
* COVID-19 intensifies scrutiny of expert advice; authors such as Kling, Khan, and Yglesias publish pieces framing events as an epistemic crisis [1] [5] [9].
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
 
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
2023-2024 
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
* Nate Silver, Dan Williams, and others argue the “expert class is failing” [3] [4]. 
* Studies quantify effects of politicization on trust [14]. 
* Internal critiques emerge from within media (Economist on NYT, Berliner on NPR) [12] [13].
 
=== Public-discourse highlights ===
 
* The debate has shifted from blaming “disinformation” on the fringe to spotlighting elite-level errors [9]. 
* Some commentators (Harris, Silver) still defend the possibility of competent technocracy if insulated from politics [4] [6]; others (Khan, Williams) believe the knowledge-production system itself needs redesign [3] [5]. 
* Across perspectives, most agree that rebuilding trust requires transparency, methodological rigor, and visible accountability.
 
=== Summary ===
 
The epistemic crisis is a multi-cause breakdown in the authority of traditional knowledge-making institutions. Elite failures—scientific non-replication, policy blunders, and politicized media—serve as salient evidence that fuels public distrust. While authors differ on which failure looms largest, they converge on the diagnosis: without credible mechanisms for establishing what is true, policy and democracy both suffer.
 
== Sources ==
Peer-reviewed Science:
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]
 
Data-driven Analysis:
 
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
 
Investigative Journalism & Commentary:
 
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac - How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
 
== Question ==
What is the epistemic crisis?
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
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