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== Overview ==
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”'''  
The phrase “epistemic crisis” describes a breakdown in society’s shared methods for determining what is true, credible, and actionable. Commentators argue that when citizens, experts and institutions no longer agree on basic facts, collective decision-making falters and trust erodes.<ref name=Kling>[6]</ref><ref name=Williams>[7]</ref><ref name=RAND>[4]</ref>


== What is the epistemic crisis? ==
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain.  Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:
'' A measurable collapse in public confidence that existing institutions can sort fact from error.  Long-running Pew data show U.S. trust in federal government near historic lows (17 % in 2024)<ref name=PewGov>[3]</ref> and trust in scientists down 14 percentage points since 2020.<ref name=PewSci>[5]</ref> 
'' A scientific “reproducibility crisis”: only 39 % of published psychology findings could be replicated in a large 2015 audit.<ref name=Repro>[2]</ref>  
'' Politicization of facts: experimental evidence finds that merely labeling an institution as aligned with a political side reduces trust even among co-partisans.<ref name=Politicization>[1]</ref> 
'' Commentators therefore claim the U.S. is experiencing an epistemic (or epistemological) crisis in which “no one knows whom to believe.”<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Khan>[10]</ref>


== Causes commonly cited ==
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5] 
= Politicization of neutral institutions – universities, public-health agencies, professional associations, and even courts publicly take partisan positions, making every statement look like political messaging.<ref name=Politicization/><ref name=Stewart>[20]</ref> =
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] 
= Information over-abundance – social media lowers barriers to publication, producing “truth decay,” i.e., more opinions than verifiable facts, and blurring the line between the two.<ref name=RAND/> =
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1]
= Erosion of gatekeeping media – legacy outlets lost audience share and revenue; algorithms reward engagement over accuracy, so misinformation spreads easily.<ref name=Mounk>[12]</ref><ref name=BostonReview>[16]</ref> =
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]
= Demonstrated expert fallibility – failed replications in science,<ref name=Repro/> faulty economic or epidemiological forecasts,<ref name=Silver>[9]</ref> and high-profile retractions convince citizens that “experts are guessing.”<ref name=Jussim>[13]</ref> =
= Feedback loop of distrust – as trust declines, people rely on partisan or identity-based heuristics, which intensifies polarization and further reduces trust.<ref name=PewSci/><ref name=RAND/> =


== Examples of elite failures that fueled the crisis ==
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.
'' The replication failure rate in psychology (≈75 %) widely publicized in 2015–2020.<ref name=Repro/><ref name=Jussim/>
'' Public-health communication reversals during COVID-19 (mask guidance, school closures) cited as evidence of “elite incoherence.”<ref name=Silver/><ref name=Yglesias>[15]</ref>
'' Media mis-reporting: the “Potomac River plane crash” rumor analysed by Jesse Singal to show how journalists amplified unverified claims.<ref name=Singal>[17]</ref>
'' Financial-crisis risk models: economists and regulators underestimated systemic risk prior to 2008, undermining faith in technocracy.<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Kling/>
'' Political intelligence failures (e.g., Iraq WMD 2003) often referenced by commentators as an earlier shock to expert credibility.<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Harris>[11]</ref>
'' High-profile newsroom controversies (NYT “Tom Cotton op-ed,” NPR editor critique) illustrate perception that news organizations enforce ideological conformity rather than accuracy.<ref name=Economist>[18]</ref><ref name=NPR>[19]</ref>


== Timeline of the public discourse ==
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''
'' 2003–08  Iraq intelligence failures and the global financial crisis plant early seeds of distrust in policy experts.<ref name=Harris/><ref name=Williams/>
'' 2014  RAND begins the “Truth Decay” project, formalising worries about fact–value confusion.<ref name=RAND/>
'' 2015  Science publishes the reproducibility mega-study; the term “replication crisis” becomes mainstream.<ref name=Repro/>
'' 2016  “Fake news” dominates U.S. election coverage, focusing attention on social-media misinformation.<ref name=BostonReview/>
'' 2020–21  COVID-19 response highlights real-time expert disagreement; Substack writers popularise the phrase “epistemic crisis.”<ref name=Kling/><ref name=Williams/><ref name=Khan/>
'' 2023  Pew reports continued decline in trust in scientists; Economist and NPR whistle-blower articles dramatise newsroom trust issues.<ref name=PewSci/><ref name=Economist/><ref name=NPR/>
'' 2024  Pew updates government-trust series (17 %); Nate Silver and others argue the “expert class is failing.”<ref name=PewGov/><ref name=Silver/>


== Conflicting views among sources ==
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3]. 
'' Some scholars emphasise demand-side problems (audience polarization) rather than elite failure.<ref name=PewGov/>  
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5].   
'' Others argue elite mistakes are the primary driver and that ordinary citizens are reacting rationally to bad expert performance.<ref name=Silver/><ref name=Yglesias/>
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2].
'' RAND’s “Truth Decay” frames the crisis as structural (information environment) and bipartisan, whereas commentators like Sam Harris highlight partisan media incentives.<ref name=RAND/><ref name=Harris/>
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4]. 
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].


== See also ==
'''How the discussion divides'''
'' [[Replication crisis]]
'' [[Misinformation]]
* [[Public trust in science]]


== Sources ==
# “Institutional failure first” view 
Peer-reviewed Science:
  Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]


Data-driven Analysis:
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view 
  Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].


# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
# “Epistemology itself” view 
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
  Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research]


Investigative Journalism & Commentary:
# Sceptical or minimising view 
  A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship.  They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].


# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
'''Why it matters'''
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
 
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder. 
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
 
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
'''Suggested responses under debate'''
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
 
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4]. 
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19]. 
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
 
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
 
x
'''Sources'''
== Question ==
 
What is the epistemic crisis?
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust 
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse
 
== Suggested Sources ==
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
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