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== What is the “epistemic crisis”? ==
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”'''  
The phrase refers to a broad breakdown in society’s ability to agree on what is true, how to determine truth, and whom to trust as credible authorities. Commentators describe three inter-linked symptoms:


'' Widespread loss of trust in traditional knowledge-producing institutions such as government, science, universities and legacy media <sup>[1][3][5][6][12][14]</sup>.
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain. Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:
'' Information environments (cable news, social media, partisan outlets) that reward attention-grabbing narratives over careful fact-finding, leading to competing “realities” <sup>[4][7][15][16]</sup>.
'' Mounting evidence that even the expert class sometimes fails to meet its own ideals of accuracy, transparency and neutrality (e.g., the reproducibility crisis in psychology, pandemic forecasting errors, polling misses) <sup>[2][9][13]</sup>.


Collectively, these dynamics create a condition in which citizens, journalists and policymakers doubt not only particular claims but the very procedures by which claims are judged.
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5] 
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] 
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1] 
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15] 


== Causes most often cited ==
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.
= Politicization of expertise.  Experimental work finds that when an institution is seen as politically aligned, trust in that institution drops even among ideological allies <sup>[1][20]</sup>.  =
= Declining performance and visibility of elite failures.  High-profile mistakes—financial, geopolitical, medical, journalistic—undermine the assumption that credentialed authorities are reliably competent <sup>[8][9][11][15]</sup>.  =
= Information over-supply (“Truth Decay”).  Cheap digital distribution floods the public sphere with low-cost content, overwhelming individual fact-checking capacity and encouraging motivated reasoning <sup>[4][7][12][16]</sup>.  =
= Structural erosion of civic trust.  Long-running Pew trends show U.S. trust in federal government falling from roughly 70 % in the 1960s to under 20 % today <sup>[3]</sup>.  Similar though less severe declines are now measured for “science” as a category <sup>[5]</sup>.  =
= Scientific self-correction delays.  Large replication projects suggest that many published results in psychology and other fields do not hold up under scrutiny, fueling suspicion that peer review is unreliable <sup>[2][13]</sup>. =


Analysts differ on emphasis: RAND’s “Truth Decay” report stresses information economics <sup>[4]</sup>; Arnold Kling highlights institutional incentives <sup>[6]</sup>; Dan Williams emphasizes cultural polarization <sup>[7]</sup>; Sam Harris focuses on social-media amplification of bad incentives <sup>[11]</sup>.
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''


== Examples of elite failures frequently cited as catalysts ==
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3].
'' Iraq WMD intelligence (2002-03) — bipartisan political, intelligence and media consensus later shown false, damaging trust in both government and legacy press <sup>[12][16]</sup>.
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5].
'' Global financial crisis (2007-09) — regulators and leading economists missed systemic risks; perceived as evidence of technocratic hubris <sup>[8][15]</sup>.
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2].
'' 2016 U.S. election polling miss — experts predicted a low probability of a Trump victory, eroding faith in quantitative models <sup>[9]</sup>.
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4]. 
'' COVID-19 communication reversals (2020-22) — changing guidance on masks, school closures and lab-leak theories highlighted both genuine uncertainty and political messaging pressure <sup>[11][15]</sup>.
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].
'' Reproducibility crisis in psychology and biomedicine — large-scale replication projects found fewer than half of landmark findings replicate, challenging the authority of published research <sup>[2][13]</sup>.
'' Major newsroom controversies — disputed stories at The New York Times, NPR and others revived claims of partisan filtering inside elite media organizations <sup>[18][19]</sup>.


== Timeline of the public discourse (selected milestones) ==
'''How the discussion divides'''
2004 – 2008 “Netroots” vs. “Right-blogosphere” debates foreshadow fragmentation of epistemic authorities. 
2012 Nate Silver’s first bestseller popularises probabilistic forecasting and draws early culture-war fire <sup>[9]</sup>. 
2015 “Replication crisis” enters mainstream after Science publishes large psychology reproducibility project <sup>[2]</sup>. 
2016 Post-election soul-searching focuses on “fake news,” filter bubbles and polling errors <sup>[16]</sup>. 
2018 RAND coins “Truth Decay” to describe factual contestation and declining trust <sup>[4]</sup>. 
2020-2022 Pandemic magnifies battles over expertise; Pew finds first measurable drop in trust in scientists <sup>[5]</sup>. 
2023 Substack and other alternative platforms accelerate meta-conversation about “elite failure” <sup>[6][7][15]</sup>. 
2024 Pew records lowest trust in federal government since measurements began <sup>[3]</sup>; multiple high-profile journalists (e.g., NPR, NYT veterans) publish insider critiques of legacy media culture <sup>[18][19]</sup>.


== Conflicting views within sources ==
# “Institutional failure first” view 
'' Some writers see the crisis mainly as a perception problem—institutions are still broadly reliable but communication failures obscure that fact <sup>[12]</sup>. 
  Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].
'' Others argue the problem is substantive: experts actually under-perform, and public skepticism is often rational <sup>[9][13][15]</sup>. 
'' There is disagreement over remedies.  Kling advocates decentralised knowledge production <sup>[6]</sup>, Harris calls for stronger platform moderation <sup>[11]</sup>, while Stewart-Williams warns that overt political endorsements by scientific bodies deepen skepticism <sup>[20]</sup>.


== Summary ==
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view 
The epistemic crisis is the convergence of eroding trust, politicized information and demonstrated expert fallibility.  Its causes are multi-layered—technological, cultural and institutional—and its manifestations range from policy stalemates to the viral spread of conspiracy theories.  Whether the core issue is failed perception or failed performance remains contested, but all sides agree that credibility, once lost, is hard to regain.
  Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].


== Sources ==
# “Epistemology itself” view 
Peer-reviewed Science:
  Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]


Data-driven Analysis:
# Sceptical or minimising view 
  A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship.  They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].


# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
'''Why it matters'''
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research]


Investigative Journalism & Commentary:
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder. 
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.


# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
'''Suggested responses under debate'''
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]


== Question ==
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4]. 
What is the epistemic crisis?  
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19]. 
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].
 
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.
 
'''Sources'''
 
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust 
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse
 
== Suggested Sources ==
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
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