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=== What is the “epistemic crisis”? ===
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”'''  
The phrase “epistemic crisis” is used in journalism, policy analysis and academic work to describe a perceived breakdown in shared standards for determining what is true.  Commentators argue that citizens no longer agree on where knowledge comes from, which institutions to trust, or even on basic facts, leading to social conflict, policy paralysis and vulnerability to misinformation [4][6][7].  RAND’s 2018 study labelled the same constellation of problems “Truth Decay,” noting four simultaneous trends: disagreement about facts, blurring of opinion and fact, information overload, and declining trust in formerly authoritative institutions [4]. More recent polling shows record-low public confidence in government [3] and in scientists [5], reinforcing the idea that the crisis is ongoing.


=== What is causing it? ===
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain. Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:
Multiple mechanisms are invoked; none is universally accepted, but several themes recur across the literature.


'' Politicization of knowledge-producing bodies.  Experimental evidence shows that when an institution’s work is framed as partisan, trust falls even among people who share the institution’s stated ideology [1]. 
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5]   
'' Replication and quality problems inside science.  A landmark multi-lab effort could replicate only ~40 % of high-profile psychology findings [2]; later reviews claim the share of false findings may be closer to 75 % [12].  
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13]   
'' Media and information-system change.  Analysts point to 24-hour cable news, social media, and search‐driven advertising as amplifiers of sensational or identity-affirming content, while traditional newsrooms lose resources and public standing [13][14][15][16].  
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1]   
'' Declining elite performance (“elite failure”).  Commentators on both left and right argue that repeated expert and leadership errors—financial, military, epidemiological—have eroded the public’s prior of institutional competence [8][9][11].  
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]
'' Cognitive and motivational factors.  Writers such as Arnold Kling emphasise “motivated reasoning” and the tendency to treat politics as identity, which makes factual disagreement more durable [6]. 
'' Supply-side misinformation.  While some researchers warn the problem is overstated [10], others note that low barriers to publishing enable coordinated campaigns to spread false narratives that then thrive in the permissive media ecosystem [7].


=== Examples of elite failure that contributed to the crisis ===
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.
Below are widely cited episodes in which decision-makers or expert bodies misinformed the public or performed poorly, becoming touchstones in the discourse on epistemic breakdown.


'' The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction intelligence failure (2002-03).  Frequently cited by Dan Williams and Yascha Mounk as an early modern case of bipartisan elite error that damaged media and government credibility [7][13]. 
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''
'' The Global Financial Crisis (2008).  Analysts link regulatory and academic complacency to the crash, arguing that the failure of economists and regulators helped normalise scepticism toward experts [8]. 
'' The Replication Crisis in psychology and other sciences (2011-present).  Large-scale replication efforts revealed systemic methodological weaknesses, shaking confidence in peer review [2][12]. 
'' Pandemic messaging reversals (2020-22).  Nate Silver details how shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects undermined perceptions of technocratic competence [9]. 
'' Institutional media scandals.  Internal critiques at NPR [15], the New York Times [16] and the Washington Post [14] argue that politicised newsroom cultures led to coverage errors that further depressed trust in journalism.


=== Timeline of the public discourse ===
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3].   
'' 2003 Iraq WMD controversy sparks sustained questioning of intelligence and media narratives [7][13].   
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5].   
'' 2008–09 Financial crisis intensifies scrutiny of economic experts and regulatory agencies [8].   
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2].   
'' 2015 Science publishes the “Reproducibility Project: Psychology,” igniting mainstream attention to replication failures [2].   
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4].   
'' 2018 RAND coins “Truth Decay,” framing the phenomenon as a policy challenge [4].   
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].
'' 2020 COVID-19 brings scientific uncertainty to daily life; trust in health authorities oscillates (covered extensively by Silver, Harris and others [9][11]). 
'' 2023 Pew finds a ten-point drop in trust in scientists since 2020 [5]; Dan Williams and Arnold Kling publish essays explicitly calling the moment an “epistemic crisis” [6][7]. 
'' 2024 Pew reports trust in U.S. federal government near historic lows [3]; overlapping Substack debates (Yglesias, Silver, Singal) focus on elite failure and information gate-keeping [9][13].


=== Conflicting or divergent views ===
'''How the discussion divides'''
While most sources agree that trust is falling, they disagree on severity and remedy.  RAND frames the issue as policy-fixable through better civic education and media literacy [4], whereas Sam Harris emphasises moral leadership and institutional reform [11].  Lee Jussim argues that replication crises show problems are largely internal to academia [12], while Yascha Mounk stresses structural incentives in media organisations [13].  Matthew Yglesias contends that “elite misinformation” is more damaging than fringe conspiracy content [13], a view some fact-checking scholars dispute [10].


=== Summary ===
# “Institutional failure first” view 
The epistemic crisis refers to a multifaceted erosion of shared methods for establishing truth.  Data show declining trust in government, science and news.  Research attributes the problem to politicisation, scientific unreliability, changing information markets, and headline-grabbing elite failures such as the Iraq war, the financial crash, replication shortfalls and pandemic missteps.  Debate continues over root causes and fixes, but there is broad agreement that the legitimacy of knowledge institutions is under strain.
  Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].


== Sources ==
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view 
Peer-reviewed Science:
  Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation. The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].
1. [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
2. [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]


Data-driven Analysis:
# “Epistemology itself” view 
  Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].


# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
# Sceptical or minimising view 
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
  A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship. They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research]


Investigative Journalism & Commentary:
'''Why it matters'''


# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder.
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise.
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]


== Question ==
'''Suggested responses under debate'''
What is the epistemic crisis?  
 
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4]. 
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19]. 
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].
 
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.
 
'''Sources'''
 
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust 
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse
 
== Suggested Sources ==
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
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