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The epistemic crisis refers to a deep, society-wide breakdown in the systems that create, vet, and distribute reliable knowledge. It is marked by falling trust in traditional authorities, growing doubts about what is true, and a proliferation of mutually incompatible “realities.”  
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”'''  


=== What is the epistemic crisis?  ===
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain.  Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:
* Decline in shared facts.  RAND researchers describe a “diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life,” a condition they label Truth Decay [4]. 


* Erosion of institutional trust.  Confidence in government has fallen from roughly 75 % in 1960 to about 16 % in 2024 [3]. Trust in scientists, once exceptionally high, has also slipped steadily since 2019 [5].  
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5] 
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] 
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1]   
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]   


* Internal uncertainty within the knowledge-producing community.  A large collaborative effort found that only 36 % of high-profile psychology findings could be replicated [2], suggesting that even peer-reviewed claims may be unreliable.
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.


Commentators summarise the situation as an “epistemic crisis” [6][7][10], a phrase that has migrated from academic journals to mainstream commentary during the past decade.
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''


=== What is causing the crisis?  ===
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3]. 
Multiple, overlapping forces are identified in the literature and commentary:
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5]. 
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2]. 
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4]. 
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].


# Politicisation of expertise 
'''How the discussion divides'''
  A controlled study shows that when scientific findings are explicitly tied to partisan rhetoric, trust declines even among people ideologically aligned with the source [1].  Critics argue that professional bodies endorsing candidates or policy positions accelerate this slide [20].


# Information supply shocks  
# “Institutional failure first” view  
   Social media and 24-hour news produce an “information overload,” while algorithms reward novelty and outrage over accuracy [4][12].
   Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].


# Elite failure and reputational self-damage  
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view  
   Repeated high-profile errors—whether in scholarship, media, or governance—create a negative feedback loop: each new mistake makes the next fact-check less credible [9][15].
   Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].


# Replication and methodological crises inside academia  
# “Epistemology itself” view  
   The observed 36 % replication rate in psychology [2] and subsequent estimates that “about 75 % of psychology claims are false” [13] undermine public faith in science more broadly.
   Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].


# Perceived ideological homogeneity among gatekeepers  
# Sceptical or minimising view  
   Analyses of newsroom and university cultures describe an increasingly uniform set of political priors, which can blind organisations to their own errors and alienate outsiders [12][18][19].
   A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship.  They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].


=== Examples of elite failures that fuelled the crisis  ===
'''Why it matters'''
* The replication crisis in psychology (2015-present).  High-profile findings, including social-priming effects, failed to reproduce, casting doubt on a generation of research [2][13]. 


* COVID-19 communication missteps.  Although not universally acknowledged as “failure,” commentators such as Yglesias argue that changing guidelines and premature certainty damaged trust in public-health authorities [15].
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder.   
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.


* Politicised science statements.  Professional societies publicly endorsing partisan positions (e.g., in U.S. presidential elections) were criticised for blurring lines between evidence and advocacy [20]. 
'''Suggested responses under debate'''


* Media groupthink and retractions.  Cases ranging from misreported campus incidents to early coverage of the “lab-leak” hypothesis illustrate what Mounk calls the tendency of major outlets to “move in unison” [12][18].  An NPR senior editor recounts internal pressures that, in his view, caused the network to lose the trust of half the country [19].   
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4].   
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19].   
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].


* Intelligence and policy failures (e.g., Iraq WMD).  While not detailed in the provided sources, RAND notes such events as emblematic episodes where institutional certainty later proved unfounded, reinforcing cynicism [4].
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.


=== Timeline of the public discourse  ===
'''Sources'''
1958-1970s High post-war trust in government and traditional media [3]. 


1990s Early internet expands information sources; ideological media niches begin to form (background to Truth Decay [4]).   
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust  
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse


2012-2015 “Replication crisis” label enters academic and popular press after failed replications in psychology; Science publishes large-scale reproducibility project [2]. 
== Suggested Sources ==
 
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
2016 The term “post-truth” is Oxford’s Word of the Year; commentators like Arnold Kling frame events as an “epistemic crisis” [6]. 
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
 
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
2018 RAND publishes Truth Decay report [4]; discourse around elite failure intensifies after the 2016 election and social-media scandals. 
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
 
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
2020-2022 Pandemic amplifies scrutiny of scientific and media institutions; Pew registers first sustained decline in trust in scientists [5]. 
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
2023 Opinion pieces analyse “elite failures and populist backlash” [8] and lament “when the New York Times lost its way” [18]. 
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
 
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
2024 Pew shows record-low trust in government [3]; Nate Silver declares that “the expert class is failing” [9]; commentary on institutional credibility dominates Substack and mainstream outlets.
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
=== Summary of disagreements in the sources  ===
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
* Degree of crisis.  Some analysts see a systemic breakdown (Kling [6], Williams [7]), while others emphasise correctable policy and communication errors (Yglesias [15]). 
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
 
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
* Primary culprit.  Academic authors stress structural forces like information overload [4], whereas journalists focus on elite errors and ideological bias [12][18][19]. 
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
* Solutions.  Proposals range from depoliticising science [20] to building alternative trust networks outside legacy institutions [11][17]. 
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
 
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
Together, the evidence suggests that the epistemic crisis is real, multi-causal, and likely to persist until institutions rebuild both accuracy and perceived impartiality.
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
 
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
== Sources ==
Peer-reviewed Science:
1. [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
2. [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]
 
Data-driven Analysis:
 
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research]
 
Investigative Journalism & Commentary:
 
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
 
== Question ==
What is the epistemic crisis?
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
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