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'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”''' 


== What is the epistemic crisis?  ==
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain.  Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:


Most commentators use the phrase “epistemic crisis” to describe a breakdown in the shared processes by which a society determines what is true.  Symptoms include declining trust in government, news media, scientists, and other traditional arbiters of knowledge; the spread of mutually exclusive factual narratives; and rising doubts about the reliability of expert advice or scientific findings [4][6][7][15].
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5] 
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] 
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1] 
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]


The crisis is not merely about misinformation or “fake news.”  It is about the loss of a perceived ''system'' for adjudicating truth-claims—what RAND calls “Truth Decay,” the “diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life” [4].  When citizens no longer agree on who or what counts as an authoritative source, collective decision-making and long-term institutional legitimacy suffer.
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.


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'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''


== What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?  ==
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3]. 
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5]. 
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2]. 
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4]. 
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].


Different authors emphasize different drivers, but four broad themes recur:
'''How the discussion divides'''


# Politicization of Expertise  
# “Institutional failure first” view  
   • Institutions that once presented themselves as neutral are increasingly perceived as partisan, especially when they take explicit political stands or are staffed by ideologically homogeneous elites [1][5][20]. 
   Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].
  • Experimental evidence shows that overt politicization reduces trust even among people who agree with the position being advocated [1].


# Declining Reliability Signals  
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view  
   • Large-scale efforts to replicate influential psychology papers found that only 36-47% replicate, fuelling public scepticism about “settled” science [2][13]. 
   Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].
  • High-profile retractions and methodological crises make it harder for laypeople to know which studies to take seriously.


# Information Abundance & Fragmentation  
# “Epistemology itself” view  
   • Digital platforms have lowered entry costs for publishing, so elite outlets no longer monopolize attention. Competing narratives flourish, and confirmation-bias is amplified by algorithms [4][12][16].
   Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].


# Elite Failure & Eroding Trust  
# Sceptical or minimising view  
   • When expert predictions or policy decisions turn out badly, citizens update their priors about elite competence.  This “performance-based” scepticism accumulates across domains—finance, foreign policy, public health, education—and eventually generalises into a cross-domain trust collapse [6][8][9][15].
   A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship.  They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].


Authors disagree on relative weight: Kling sees institutional overconfidence as central [6]; Williams stresses ideological uniformity in newsrooms and universities [7]; Yglesias highlights elite misinformation as an “underrated” factor [15]; RAND assigns equal blame to media, education, and political incentives [4].
'''Why it matters'''


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* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder. 
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.


== Examples of elite failures that fuelled the crisis  ==
'''Suggested responses under debate'''


* 2008 Financial Crisis  
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4].  
  – Regulators, ratings agencies, and leading economists failed to foresee systemic risk, damaging confidence in economic expertise [4][9].
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19]. 
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].


* Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq (2003) 
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.
  – Intelligence community and major news outlets amplified faulty assessments, later acknowledged as error, reducing faith in both government and media [8][12].


* Replication Crisis in Psychology (2015-present) 
'''Sources'''
  – Landmark Science paper found fewer than half of 100 studies replicated [2]; follow-ups suggest up to 75 % of claims are false or exaggerated [13]. 


* COVID-19 Messaging (2020-2023)   
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
  – Shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures, and vaccine transmission created perception of political rather than evidentiary decision-making [6][9][15].   
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/  
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/  
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust 
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse


* Media Coverage Controversies 
== Suggested Sources ==
  – Internal critiques at NPR [19], The New York Times [18], and broader surveys show newsroom monoculture leading to groupthink and factual errors, inviting populist backlash [12][18][19].
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
 
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
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# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
 
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
== Timeline of the public discourse  ==
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
 
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
1958-1970s 
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
* Public trust in federal government consistently above 60 % [3].
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
 
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
1990s 
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
* Rise of cable news and early internet begins fragmenting audiences; trust starts to decline [4].
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
 
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
2003 
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
* Iraq WMD intelligence failure becomes a formative scepticism event [8][12].
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
 
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
2008-2009 
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
* Financial crisis leads to renewed questioning of expert competence in economics and regulation [4][9].
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
 
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
2015 
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
* “Replication crisis” enters mainstream after Science publishes reproducibility project [2]. 
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
* RAND launches Truth Decay project [4].
 
2016-2018 
* “Fake news” becomes political rallying cry; Facebook and Twitter hearings in Congress [16]. 
* Multiple think-pieces label the situation an “epistemic crisis” [6][7].
 
2020-2022 
* COVID-19 accelerates debate over politicization of science; Pew registers sharp fall in trust in scientists among Republicans and, later, Democrats [5]. 
* Substack newsletters (Silver, Harris, Singal, Khan) provide alternative venues for evaluating expert failure narratives [9][11][17].
 
2023-2024 
* Continued drop in trust in government hits new lows (Pew: 16 %) [3]. 
* Nate Silver argues the “expert class is failing,” tying institutional mistakes to electoral outcomes [9]. 
* Surveys show media credibility at or near record lows [14][19].
 
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== Public discourse and fault lines  ==
 
Consensus 
* Nearly all sources agree that trust in traditional institutions is falling and that politicization correlates with this decline [1][3][4][5].
 
Contested Points 
* Cause vs. symptom: Is elite failure driving distrust, or is polarization causing elites to appear less trustworthy? 
* Remedy: Some propose re-emphasising methodological transparency and viewpoint diversity [7][17]; others focus on demand-side media literacy and algorithmic reforms [4][16]. 
 
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== Sources  ==
 
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ResearchSquare pre-print (peer-review pending) 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (peer-reviewed journal article) 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center trend survey 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation research report 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center survey report 
# An Epistemic Crisis? – Arnold Kling (opinion blog post) 
# America’s Epistemological Crisis – Dan Williams (opinion essay) 
# Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Dan Williams (opinion essay) 
# The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Nate Silver (opinion newsletter) 
# It’s The Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Khan (opinion newsletter) 
# The Reckoning – Sam Harris (opinion newsletter) 
# Why The Media Moves in Unison – Yascha Mounk (opinion newsletter) 
# 75% of Psychology Claims Are False – Lee Jussim (opinion newsletter summarizing peer-reviewed work) 
# The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – Washington Post opinion piece (Jeff Bezos) 
# Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Matthew Yglesias (opinion newsletter) 
# The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (magazine feature) 
# How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (opinion newsletter) 
# When The New York Times Lost Its Way – The Economist (magazine feature) 
# I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (first-person essay) 
# Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (opinion newsletter)
 
== Sources ==
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research]
# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
 
== Question ==
What is the epistemic crisis?
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?
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