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What is the epistemic crisis?

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''(Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.)''
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'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''   
'''What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”'''   
“Epistemic crisis” is the label commonly given to the widespread breakdown of shared norms for establishing what is true, reliable or authoritative.  RAND’s 2018 report on “Truth Decay” described “diminishing agreement about facts” and “declining trust in previously respected sources of factual information” as the defining features of the phenomenon [4].  Survey data show steady erosion of confidence in government [3], scientists [5], and the news media [14].  Essays by commentators across the ideological spectrum (e.g., Arnold Kling [6], Conspicuous Cognition [7], Nate Silver [9]) interpret these numbers as evidence that American public life no longer has a commonly accepted epistemic authority.  The crisis is therefore not just about “fake news” but about a structural weakening of the institutions and practices that once produced a common evidentiary baseline.


'''Causes of the epistemic crisis'''  
In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain. Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:


# Politicization of institutions  
'' declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5]  
  • Experimental work shows that when people learn an institution has taken a partisan stand, trust falls even among ideological allies [1].  
'' accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] 
  • Scientific and professional organizations have increasingly issued political statements, a practice some critics argue erodes perceived neutrality [20].
'' the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1]   
'' an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]


# Replication and methodological problems in science 
Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.
  • The 2015 Reproducibility Project found fewer than 40 % of sampled psychology results replicated [2]. 
  • Follow-up syntheses estimate that “roughly 75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].  Public coverage of these findings contributes to doubt about expert authority [5].


# Media system incentives 
'''Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis'''
  • RAND notes “blurring of the line between opinion and fact” in 24-hour and online media [4]. 
  • Journalistic homogeneity—“Why the media moves in unison” [12]—feeds suspicion that elite outlets act as a coordinated narrative cartel. 
  • First-person accounts from within legacy outlets (e.g., NPR [19] and the New York Times [18]) describe internal ideological pressures that, critics say, alienate large segments of the audience.


# Information abundance and social media   
* Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3]. 
  • Commentators argue that decentralized, algorithm-driven platforms overwhelm citizens’ ability to vet claims, making it easier for both elite and non-elite misinformation to spread [15].
* The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5]. 
* A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2]. 
* RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4].  
* Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].


# Declining performance of governing and expert institutions 
'''How the discussion divides'''
  • Per Pew, trust in federal government has hovered near historic lows since the mid-2000s [3].  Essays such as “The Expert Class Is Failing” [9] claim repeated governance errors have made skepticism rational rather than irrational.


'''Examples of elite failures frequently cited as catalysts'''  
# “Institutional failure first” view  
(The listed sources may discuss or use them as illustrative cases rather than provide original reporting.)
  Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].


* Public health messaging during COVID-19 (mask guidance reversals, school-closure debates) – used by Silver [9] and Slow Boring [15] as evidence that experts can mislead or over-state confidence.
# “Populist / media ecosystem” view 
  Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].


* The replication crisis in psychology and social science – documented empirically by Science [2] and spotlighted for the lay public by Unsafe Science [13].
# “Epistemology itself” view 
  Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].


* Media framing errors, e.g., premature certainty about high-profile investigations or incidents (Jesse Singal’s “Potomac plane crash” case study [17]).
# Sceptical or minimising view 
  A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship. They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].


* Perceived groupthink at flagship news organizations – internal critiques from veteran journalists at the New York Times [18] and NPR [19]. 
'''Why it matters'''


* Policy establishment mis-reads of populist backlash – Conspicuous Cognition argues elite underestimation of economic and cultural discontent fueled mistrust [8].
* Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder. 
* Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise. 
* Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.


(Authors disagree on the weight of each example.  RAND [4] focuses on structural media changes; Sam Kahn [10] emphasizes philosophical confusions about knowledge; Boston Review [16] argues that “fake news” panic is often exaggerated.)
'''Suggested responses under debate'''


'''Timeline of key moments in the public discourse''' 
* Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4]. 
* Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20]. 
* Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19]. 
* Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].


2015 – Reproducibility Project publishes in Science, sparking mainstream attention to methodological weaknesses [2].
No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.


2016 – 2018 – “Fake news” becomes a political catch-phrase; RAND releases “Truth Decay” (2018) framing the issue as systemic [4]. 
'''Sources'''


2020 – COVID-19 pandemic accelerates debate over expert credibility; Substack essays multiply (e.g., Kling [6]).   
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ 
# Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis 
# “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis 
# “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash 
# Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so 
# Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid 
# Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning 
# “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison 
# “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 
# “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ 
# Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated 
# “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ 
# Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac 
# “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way 
# Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust  
# Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse


2023 – Pew reports continued slide in trust in scientists [5]; commentaries such as “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” argue the conversation had been too focused on fringe conspiracy theories [15]. 
== Suggested Sources ==
 
2024 – Pre-print evidence that politicization itself depresses trust even among partisans [1]; opinion pieces in major outlets (Washington Post [14]) and Substacks (Silver [9]) frame the crisis as central to electoral politics.
 
'''Current contours of the debate''' 
* Some scholars and journalists see an existential threat to liberal democracy if no shared epistemic foundation can be restored [4][12]. 
* Others caution that talk of “crisis” risks exaggeration; Pew data show most Americans still express at least “some” trust in scientists and courts [5]. 
* Disagreement persists over whether the main driver is elite failure (Silver [9], Slow Boring [15]) or populist disinformation (Boston Review [16]).  A growing middle position—articulated by Conspicuous Cognition [7]—holds that both forces interact: elite missteps create openings that opportunistic actors exploit. 
 
The epistemic crisis, then, is not a single event but an evolving pattern in which institutional authority, methodological rigor, media incentives and partisan identity continuously feed back on one another, eroding the conditions for a broadly shared picture of reality.
 
== Sources ==
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
Line 80: Line 93:
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)
x
== Question ==
What is the epistemic crisis?
What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

Latest revision as of 23:29, 3 May 2025

Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.

What people mean by “the epistemic crisis”

In current English-language debate the phrase usually refers to a breakdown in the shared social machinery that allows large groups to decide what is true, false, or uncertain. Instead of one single problem, commentators point to an interacting cluster of trends:

declining public trust in traditional arbiters of knowledge such as government, universities, science and professional journalism [3] [5] accumulating evidence that many published research findings do not replicate or were oversold [2] [13] the politicisation of previously technical questions, which erodes trust even among citizens who are ideologically aligned with the institution in question [1] an information environment in which social and legacy media reward speed, outrage and group signalling more than accuracy or open error-correction [4] [12] [15]

Taken together, these dynamics are said to create an “epistemic crisis”: ordinary citizens, policy-makers and even experts disagree not only about values but about basic facts, data quality and who should be believed.

Empirical indicators that fuel the diagnosis

  • Trust in the U.S. federal government has fallen from about 75 % in the late 1960s to around 16 % in 2024 [3].
  • The share of Americans saying they have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists fell from 39 % in 2020 to 23 % in 2023 [5].
  • A large replication project in psychology reproduced only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, with average effect sizes roughly half those originally reported [2].
  • RAND’s multi-year “Truth Decay” project documents rising disagreement about objective facts and a blurring of the line between opinion and evidence across U.S. media ecosystems [4].
  • Experimental work shows that simply signalling partisan involvement (e.g., a governor telling a state agency what conclusion to reach) lowers trust in the agency’s eventual report, even among co-partisans [1].

How the discussion divides

  1. “Institutional failure first” view
  Writers such as Nate Silver, Yascha Mounk and Matt Yglesias emphasise elite mistakes, groupthink and overconfidence—especially during crises like COVID-19—as primary drivers of public scepticism [9] [12] [15].
  1. “Populist / media ecosystem” view
  Others stress the role of social platforms, hyper-partisan media and algorithmic amplification of misinformation.  The RAND authors and many legacy-media commentators fall in this camp [4] [14].
  1. “Epistemology itself” view
  Authors such as Arnold Kling and Sam Kahn argue the underlying problem is that society never developed scalable rules for adjudicating truth claims once information became effectively free to publish; therefore institutions were bound to lose control [6] [10].
  1. Sceptical or minimising view
  A smaller group, including Boston Review’s legal scholars, cautions that talk of an epistemic crisis can be weaponised to delegitimise dissent and justify censorship.  They note that mistrust and propaganda are longstanding features of democratic life [16].

Why it matters

  • Policy: When public health agencies or climate panels are not believed, compliance and long-horizon legislation become harder.
  • Science: The “replication crisis” has prompted new norms (pre-registration, open data) but also fuels blanket scepticism toward expertise.
  • Democracy: If citizens cannot agree on what happened—even immediately after an event—deliberation and accountability break down.

Suggested responses under debate

  • Increase transparency, independent replication and error-correction in science and policy analysis [2] [4].
  • Separate technical work from overt partisan signalling (professional codes, firewalls, “keep the experts out of the endorsement business”) [1] [20].
  • Reform media incentives toward slower but more verifiable reporting, possibly through new funding models or audience metrics [12] [19].
  • Improve public statistical and methodological literacy so that disagreement about values is not conflated with disagreement about basic facts [4] [6].

No single prescription commands consensus; indeed, disagreement about remedies is itself treated as evidence that the epistemic crisis is real.

Sources

  1. Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1
  2. Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716
  3. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024
  4. Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html
  5. Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/
  6. Arnold Kling, “An Epistemic Crisis?” – In My Tribe (Substack) https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis
  7. “America’s Epistemological Crisis” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis
  8. “Elite Failures and Populist Backlash” – Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash
  9. Nate Silver, “The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency” – Silver Bulletin (Substack) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
  10. Sam Kahn, “It’s the Epistemology, Stupid” – Sam Kahn (Substack) https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
  11. Sam Harris, “The Reckoning” – Sam Harris (Substack) https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning
  12. “Why the Media Moves in Unison” – Persuasion https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison
  13. “75 % of Psychology Claims Are False” – Unsafe Science (Substack) https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false
  14. “The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media” – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
  15. Matt Yglesias, “Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem” – Slow Boring (Substack) https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated
  16. “The Fake News About Fake News” – Boston Review https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/
  17. Jesse Singal, “How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition” – Substack https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac
  18. “When the New York Times Lost Its Way” – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way
  19. Uri Berliner, “I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust” – The Free Press https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust
  20. Steve Stewart-Williams, “Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates?” – Substack https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse

Suggested Sources[edit]

  1. Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
  2. Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
  3. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (Long-running survey report)
  4. Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018 research report / policy study)
  5. Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023 survey report)
  6. An Epistemic Crisis? – In My Tribe (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
  7. America’s Epistemological Crisis – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
  8. Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Conspicuous Cognition (Commentary essay)
  9. The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Silver Bulletin (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
  10. It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Kahn (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
  11. The Reckoning – Sam Harris (Substack) (Opinion / Essay)
  12. Why the Media Moves in Unison – Persuasion (Opinion / Essay)
  13. 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – Unsafe Science (Substack) (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
  14. The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – The Washington Post (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
  15. Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Slow Boring (Opinion / Essay)
  16. The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (Long-form analysis / Essay)
  17. How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (Substack) (Commentary / Media criticism)
  18. When the New York Times Lost Its Way – 1843 Magazine (The Economist) (Magazine feature)
  19. I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (First-person essay / Media criticism)
  20. Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (Substack) (Commentary essay)
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