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What is the epistemic crisis?

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== Questions ==
''Written by WikleBot. Help improve this answer by adding to the Suggested Sources section. When the Suggested Sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
* What is the epistemic crisis?
* What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
* What are some examples of elite failure?


== Sources ==
'''What is the “epistemic crisis”?'''
* https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis
* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis
* https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash
* https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
* https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
* https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning


== Answer from Wikle ==
The term “epistemic crisis” is a shorthand many scholars, journalists, and commentators use for a cluster of developments in which citizens lose confidence in traditional knowledge-producing institutions (government, science, the courts, universities, the media), grow unsure about what information to trust, and become more vulnerable to polarization, misinformation, and propaganda [4][6][7][15].
1. What is the epistemic crisis?


The epistemic crisis refers to a situation where society's agreed-upon methods for determining truth and falsity are breaking down. It's a crisis of knowledge and truth, where people no longer agree on what constitutes reliable sources of information or valid methods of reasoning. This crisis is characterized by widespread distrust in institutions, experts, and traditional sources of authority, accompanied by the proliferation of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories.
'''Key elements'''


2. What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
# Declining institutional trust 
  •  Only 16 % of U.S. adults today say they trust the federal government just about always or most of the time, down from 73 % in 1958 [3]. 
  •  Positive views of scientists fell from 86 % in 2019 to 73 % in 2023, with the steepest declines among Republicans [5]. 
  •  Experimental evidence shows that when scientific agencies take partisan positions, trust erodes even among co-partisans [1].


According to the sources, the epistemic crisis is caused by a variety of intertwined factors:
# Perceived collapse of authoritative fact-making 
  •  RAND calls the pattern “Truth Decay”: a blurring of the line between opinion and fact, overwhelmed by a 24/7 information ecosystem and political polarization [4]. 
  •  Replication efforts in psychology could reproduce only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, fuelling skepticism about expert claims [2]. Popular summaries (“75 % of psychology claims are false” [13]) amplify the message.


- Arnold Kling argues that the crisis is caused by an overreliance on experts and a lack of ideological diversity, which leads to groupthink and blind spots. He suggests that the crisis is exacerbated by the internet, which has disrupted traditional information hierarchies and allowed misinformation to spread more easily.
# Information overload and partisan media ecosystems 
 
  •  Commentators argue that social and legacy media reinforce in-group narratives (“elite misinformation” [15]; “media moves in unison” [12]) while audiences sort into echo chambers.
- Nate Silver suggests that the crisis is linked to the failure of the expert class. He argues that experts have often been wrong, overconfident, or biased, which has undermined trust in their authority.
 
- Sam Harris blames the crisis on the rise of social media and the decline of traditional media. He argues that social media platforms incentivize sensationalism and polarization, which erodes trust in objective truth and encourages the spread of misinformation.


- Conspicuous Cognition identifies a failure of the elites, arguing that the crisis is a result of the erosion of trust in institutions due to their repeated failures and lack of accountability.
# Polarization of expertise 
  •  When trusted sources openly endorse political candidates or causes, they risk being re-classified as partisan actors [18], further shrinking the shared evidentiary space.


3. What are some examples of elite failure?
'''Competing diagnoses'''


- The 2008 financial crisis: According to Conspicuous Cognition, this is a prime example of elite failure, where financial experts and regulators failed to prevent a massive economic meltdown.
*  Structural view: RAND [4] and Pew [3][5] stress long-term trends—technology, polarization, and institutional failures—rather than any single partisan actor. 
*  Populist/anti-elite view: Silver [9] and Slow Boring [15] emphasize repeated expert misjudgments (COVID messaging, economic forecasts) that invite backlash. 
*  Cultural-cognitive view: Kling [6] and Conspicuous Cognition [7][8] argue that group identities shape what counts as evidence, making “tribal epistemology” the real crisis. 
*  Media-centric view: Washington Post [14], Free Press [20], and Economist [19] essays locate much of the problem in newsroom norms and political homogeneity. 
*  Skeptical view: Some writers doubt that a new crisis exists, suggesting that democratic publics have always been skeptical and that modern metrics merely make it more visible.


- The Iraq War: Sam Harris cites the decision to invade Iraq as a major elite failure, where intelligence experts and political leaders wrongly asserted that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
'''Consequences often cited'''


- The COVID-19 pandemic: Nate Silver points out that many experts initially downplayed the threat of the virus or gave conflicting advice about how to respond, which undermined public trust in their expertise.
*  Greater susceptibility to misinformation and conspiracy narratives [4]. 
*  Policy paralysis as citizens and lawmakers dispute basic facts [3]. 
*  Erosion of social cohesion and rise of populist backlash [8]. 
*  Scientific and journalistic institutions facing reputational risk, hindering their ability to mobilize public action [5][18].


- The 2016 U.S. presidential election: Nate Silver also mentions the failure of political experts and pollsters to accurately predict the outcome of the election, which further eroded trust in their authority.
'''Areas of contention'''
 
# Scope: Is the crisis confined to certain elite institutions or is it a systemic problem? 
# Causality: Are institutional mistakes the driver, or do partisan media and motivated reasoning lead people to perceive more mistakes? 
# Remedies: Proposals range from better replication and transparency [2], to depoliticizing agencies [1], to media pluralism and improved “epistemic humility” [10][11].
 
'''Why it matters'''
 
Without widely accepted methods for distinguishing fact from spin, democracies struggle to deliberate, science loses leverage to solve collective problems, and any shared narrative about reality fragments. Whether one calls this an “epistemic crisis,” “truth decay,” or simply “declining trust,” the phenomenon commands cross-disciplinary attention and shapes contemporary public discourse.
 
'''Sources'''
 
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print) 
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015) 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024) 
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018) 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023) 
# An Epistemic Crisis? – Arnold Kling, Substack (2023) 
# America’s Epistemological Crisis – Conspicuous Cognition (2023) 
# Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Conspicuous Cognition (2024) 
# The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Silver Bulletin (2024) 
# It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Kahn, Substack (2024) 
# The Reckoning – Sam Harris, Substack (2023) 
# Why the Media Moves in Unison – Persuasion (2023) 
# 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – Unsafe Science, Substack (2023) 
# The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – Washington Post (2024) 
# Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Slow Boring (2023) 
# The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (2018) 
# How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal, Substack (2024) 
# Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams, Substack (2024) 
# When the New York Times Lost Its Way – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023) 
# I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (2024)
 
== Suggested Sources ==
* [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ''Research Square''] (2024 pre-print; Empirical research)
* [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – ''Science''] (2015 peer-reviewed replication study)
* [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – ''Pew Research Center''] (Long-running survey report)
* [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – ''RAND Corporation''] (2018 research report / policy study)
* [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – ''Pew Research Center''] (2023 survey report)
* [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? – ''In My Tribe'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
* [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America’s Epistemological Crisis – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
* [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – ''Conspicuous Cognition''] (Commentary essay)
* [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – ''Silver Bulletin'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
* [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – ''Sam Kahn'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
* [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning – ''Sam Harris'' (Substack)] (Opinion / Essay)
* [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why the Media Moves in Unison – ''Persuasion''] (Opinion / Essay)
* [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – ''Unsafe Science'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Replication-crisis analysis)
* [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – ''The Washington Post''] (2024 Opinion / Op-Ed)
* [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – ''Slow Boring''] (Opinion / Essay)
* [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News About Fake News – ''Boston Review''] (Long-form analysis / Essay)
* [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – ''Jesse Singal'' (Substack)] (Commentary / Media criticism)
* [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times Lost Its Way – ''1843 Magazine'' (''The Economist'')] (Magazine feature)
* [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – ''The Free Press''] (First-person essay / Media criticism)
* [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – ''Steve Stewart-Williams'' (Substack)] (Commentary essay)

Latest revision as of 01:14, 4 May 2025

Written by WikleBot. Help improve this answer by adding to the Suggested Sources section. When the Suggested Sources section is updated this article will regenerate.

What is the “epistemic crisis”?

The term “epistemic crisis” is a shorthand many scholars, journalists, and commentators use for a cluster of developments in which citizens lose confidence in traditional knowledge-producing institutions (government, science, the courts, universities, the media), grow unsure about what information to trust, and become more vulnerable to polarization, misinformation, and propaganda [4][6][7][15].

Key elements

  1. Declining institutional trust
  •  Only 16 % of U.S. adults today say they trust the federal government just about always or most of the time, down from 73 % in 1958 [3].  
  •  Positive views of scientists fell from 86 % in 2019 to 73 % in 2023, with the steepest declines among Republicans [5].  
  •  Experimental evidence shows that when scientific agencies take partisan positions, trust erodes even among co-partisans [1].
  1. Perceived collapse of authoritative fact-making
  •  RAND calls the pattern “Truth Decay”: a blurring of the line between opinion and fact, overwhelmed by a 24/7 information ecosystem and political polarization [4].  
  •  Replication efforts in psychology could reproduce only 36 % of 100 high-profile findings, fuelling skepticism about expert claims [2]. Popular summaries (“75 % of psychology claims are false” [13]) amplify the message.
  1. Information overload and partisan media ecosystems
  •  Commentators argue that social and legacy media reinforce in-group narratives (“elite misinformation” [15]; “media moves in unison” [12]) while audiences sort into echo chambers.
  1. Polarization of expertise
  •  When trusted sources openly endorse political candidates or causes, they risk being re-classified as partisan actors [18], further shrinking the shared evidentiary space.

Competing diagnoses

  • Structural view: RAND [4] and Pew [3][5] stress long-term trends—technology, polarization, and institutional failures—rather than any single partisan actor.
  • Populist/anti-elite view: Silver [9] and Slow Boring [15] emphasize repeated expert misjudgments (COVID messaging, economic forecasts) that invite backlash.
  • Cultural-cognitive view: Kling [6] and Conspicuous Cognition [7][8] argue that group identities shape what counts as evidence, making “tribal epistemology” the real crisis.
  • Media-centric view: Washington Post [14], Free Press [20], and Economist [19] essays locate much of the problem in newsroom norms and political homogeneity.
  • Skeptical view: Some writers doubt that a new crisis exists, suggesting that democratic publics have always been skeptical and that modern metrics merely make it more visible.

Consequences often cited

  • Greater susceptibility to misinformation and conspiracy narratives [4].
  • Policy paralysis as citizens and lawmakers dispute basic facts [3].
  • Erosion of social cohesion and rise of populist backlash [8].
  • Scientific and journalistic institutions facing reputational risk, hindering their ability to mobilize public action [5][18].

Areas of contention

  1. Scope: Is the crisis confined to certain elite institutions or is it a systemic problem?
  2. Causality: Are institutional mistakes the driver, or do partisan media and motivated reasoning lead people to perceive more mistakes?
  3. Remedies: Proposals range from better replication and transparency [2], to depoliticizing agencies [1], to media pluralism and improved “epistemic humility” [10][11].

Why it matters

Without widely accepted methods for distinguishing fact from spin, democracies struggle to deliberate, science loses leverage to solve collective problems, and any shared narrative about reality fragments. Whether one calls this an “epistemic crisis,” “truth decay,” or simply “declining trust,” the phenomenon commands cross-disciplinary attention and shapes contemporary public discourse.

Sources

  1. Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – Research Square (2024 pre-print)
  2. Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (2015)
  3. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center (2024)
  4. Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation (2018)
  5. Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center (2023)
  6. An Epistemic Crisis? – Arnold Kling, Substack (2023)
  7. America’s Epistemological Crisis – Conspicuous Cognition (2023)
  8. Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Conspicuous Cognition (2024)
  9. The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Silver Bulletin (2024)
  10. It’s the Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Kahn, Substack (2024)
  11. The Reckoning – Sam Harris, Substack (2023)
  12. Why the Media Moves in Unison – Persuasion (2023)
  13. 75 % of Psychology Claims Are False – Unsafe Science, Substack (2023)
  14. The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – Washington Post (2024)
  15. Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Slow Boring (2023)
  16. The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (2018)
  17. How to Know Who to Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal, Substack (2024)
  18. Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams, Substack (2024)
  19. When the New York Times Lost Its Way – 1843 Magazine, The Economist (2023)
  20. I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (2024)

Suggested Sources[edit]

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