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== What is the epistemic crisis? ==
== What is the epistemic crisis?   ==


Commentators use the phrase “epistemic crisis” to describe a breakdown in the shared procedures a society uses to decide what is true.  In the United States this breakdown is visible in three intertwined trends.
Most commentators use the phrase “epistemic crisis” to describe a breakdown in the shared processes by which a society determines what is true.  Symptoms include declining trust in government, news media, scientists, and other traditional arbiters of knowledge; the spread of mutually exclusive factual narratives; and rising doubts about the reliability of expert advice or scientific findings [4][6][7][15].


# Collapsing public trust in the institutions traditionally charged with producing and arbitrating knowledge (government, media, academia, science) [3][4][5].   
The crisis is not merely about misinformation or “fake news.” It is about the loss of a perceived ''system'' for adjudicating truth-claims—what RAND calls “Truth Decay,” the “diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life” [4].  When citizens no longer agree on who or what counts as an authoritative source, collective decision-making and long-term institutional legitimacy suffer.
# Explosive growth of competing information channels that make it easy for false, partial or partisan claims to circulate more quickly than professional fact-checking can keep up [4][6][12][16].   
# A perception that the elites who lead those institutions repeatedly fail or behave strategically, thereby forfeiting their epistemic authority [7][8][9][15].


As Arnold Kling puts it, “epistemic crisis” is shorthand for “a condition in which people no longer know whom to trust” [6].  Dan Williams widens the definition to include the fear that the entire knowledge-producing class has become “ideologically captured” [7], while Sam Harris argues that the more acute danger comes from populist misinformation rather than elite error [11].  The concept therefore names a shared problem even though writers disagree about its primary villains. 
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== What is causing the crisis? ==
== What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?   ==


* Politicization of knowledge institutions: Experimental evidence shows that merely describing an institution as favoring one party reduces trust among both in-party and out-party respondents [1]. 
Different authors emphasize different drivers, but four broad themes recur:


* Demonstrated failures in scientific reliability: A large replication audit found that only 36 % of highly-cited psychology papers replicated [2]; popular write-ups go further, claiming “75 % of psychology claims are false” [13].   
# Politicization of Expertise 
  • Institutions that once presented themselves as neutral are increasingly perceived as partisan, especially when they take explicit political stands or are staffed by ideologically homogeneous elites [1][5][20].   
  • Experimental evidence shows that overt politicization reduces trust even among people who agree with the position being advocated [1].


* Long-term decline in institutional trust: Trust in the federal government has fallen from 73 % in 1958 to around 16 % in 2024 [3].  Trust in scientists has slipped from a pandemic high of 39 % “a great deal” of confidence to 23 % in 2023 [5].
# Declining Reliability Signals 
  • Large-scale efforts to replicate influential psychology papers found that only 36-47% replicate, fuelling public scepticism about “settled” science [2][13].   
  • High-profile retractions and methodological crises make it harder for laypeople to know which studies to take seriously.


* Truth Decay and media fragmentation: RAND’s survey documents how a 24/7 information ecosystem rewards speed and outrage over accuracy, erodes a common set of facts and blurs the line between news and commentary [4].
# Information Abundance & Fragmentation 
  • Digital platforms have lowered entry costs for publishing, so elite outlets no longer monopolize attention. Competing narratives flourish, and confirmation-bias is amplified by algorithms [4][12][16].


* Elite communication mistakes: Yascha Mounk shows how major outlets often “move in unison,” amplifying early consensus narratives that later prove wrong [12].  Matthew Yglesias argues that elite misinformation is “underrated” because it can shape policy for years before being corrected [15].
# Elite Failure & Eroding Trust  
  • When expert predictions or policy decisions turn out badly, citizens update their priors about elite competence.  This “performance-based” scepticism accumulates across domains—finance, foreign policy, public health, education—and eventually generalises into a cross-domain trust collapse [6][8][9][15].


* Social incentives inside expert communities: Steve Stewart-Williams cautions that professional societies taking partisan stands risk signaling that “our science is for our political team” and thereby weaken their credibility [20].
Authors disagree on relative weight: Kling sees institutional overconfidence as central [6]; Williams stresses ideological uniformity in newsrooms and universities [7]; Yglesias highlights elite misinformation as an “underrated” factor [15]; RAND assigns equal blame to media, education, and political incentives [4].


== Examples of elite failure that fueled the epistemic crisis ==
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* The Replication Crisis:  Failure of journals, universities and funding agencies to ensure the reliability of published findings exposed systemic weaknesses in academic gate-keeping [2][13]. 
== Examples of elite failures that fuelled the crisis  ==


* COVID-19 communication: Nate Silver contends that public-health officials issued overconfident or inconsistent statements (e.g., early mask guidance, school closures), creating a “credibility black hole” [9].  Kling and Kahn make similar points about shifting goalposts [6][10].   
* 2008 Financial Crisis  
  – Regulators, ratings agencies, and leading economists failed to foresee systemic risk, damaging confidence in economic expertise [4][9].   


* Financial crisis of 2008: Dan Williams lists regulators’ inability to foresee systemic risk as an example of expert failure that spurred populist backlash [8].   
* Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq (2003)  
  – Intelligence community and major news outlets amplified faulty assessments, later acknowledged as error, reducing faith in both government and media [8][12].   


* Intelligence errors over Iraqi WMDs: Sam Harris treats these mistakes as paradigm cases of elite misjudgment that later empowered conspiracy thinking [11].   
* Replication Crisis in Psychology (2015-present)  
  – Landmark Science paper found fewer than half of 100 studies replicated [2]; follow-ups suggest up to 75 % of claims are false or exaggerated [13].   


* Media misfires:  The Economist chronicles episodes—ranging from the 2020 Tom Cotton lab-leak op-ed to the Gaza-hospital headline—where the New York Times leapt to conclusions that later required correction [18].  A veteran editor at NPR offers a parallel account inside public radio [19].   
* COVID-19 Messaging (2020-2023) 
  – Shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures, and vaccine transmission created perception of political rather than evidentiary decision-making [6][9][15].   


* Politicized scientific statements: Stewart-Williams notes that when scientific organizations endorsed a 2020 presidential candidate they alienated some of their own members and fed claims of bias [20].
* Media Coverage Controversies  
  – Internal critiques at NPR [19], The New York Times [18], and broader surveys show newsroom monoculture leading to groupthink and factual errors, inviting populist backlash [12][18][19].


== Timeline of the discourse ==
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1958-1974 High trust in government (>60 %) collapses after Vietnam and Watergate [3]. 
== Timeline of the public discourse  ==


1990s Cable news and talk radio fragment the news audience; RAND traces early “truth decay” signals [4].
1958-1970s 
* Public trust in federal government consistently above 60 % [3].


2003 Iraq WMD intelligence failure becomes a touchstone for skepticism toward experts [11].
1990s 
* Rise of cable news and early internet begins fragmenting audiences; trust starts to decline [4].


2008 Global financial crisis deepens the idea that credentialed elites are error-prone [8].
2003 
* Iraq WMD intelligence failure becomes a formative scepticism event [8][12].


2011-2015 Psychology replication crisis comes to light; Science publishes the 100-paper replication project in 2015 [2].
2008-2009 
* Financial crisis leads to renewed questioning of expert competence in economics and regulation [4][9].


2016 “Fake news” enters mainstream vocabulary after the U.S. election [16].
2015 
* “Replication crisis” enters mainstream after Science publishes reproducibility project [2].
* RAND launches Truth Decay project [4].


2020-2022 Pandemic amplifies disputes over masks, schools, vaccines; public trust in scientists hits a five-year low by 2023 [5][9].
2016-2018 
* “Fake news” becomes political rallying cry; Facebook and Twitter hearings in Congress [16]. 
* Multiple think-pieces label the situation an “epistemic crisis” [6][7].


2023-2024 A wave of articles (Kling, Williams, Yglesias, Mounk, Silver) explicitly label the situation an “epistemic crisis” [6][7][9][12][15].
2020-2022 
* COVID-19 accelerates debate over politicization of science; Pew registers sharp fall in trust in scientists among Republicans and, later, Democrats [5]. 
* Substack newsletters (Silver, Harris, Singal, Khan) provide alternative venues for evaluating expert failure narratives [9][11][17].


== Conflicting perspectives in the sources ==
2023-2024 
* Continued drop in trust in government hits new lows (Pew: 16 %) [3]. 
* Nate Silver argues the “expert class is failing,” tying institutional mistakes to electoral outcomes [9]. 
* Surveys show media credibility at or near record lows [14][19].


* Cause emphasis: Harris sees the main danger in populist misinformation [11], Yglesias in elite error [15]; Williams argues both reinforce each other [7]. 
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* Severity: Pew data show gradual decline in trust [3][5], whereas Substack writers describe a precipice-like collapse [6][9]. 
== Public discourse and fault lines  ==


* Solutions: RAND recommends civic education and media literacy [4]; Kling doubts top-down fixes and favors decentralized “trust networks” [6]; Harris calls for stronger gate-keeping on major platforms [11].
Consensus 
* Nearly all sources agree that trust in traditional institutions is falling and that politicization correlates with this decline [1][3][4][5].


== Source Analysis ==
Contested Points 
* Cause vs. symptom: Is elite failure driving distrust, or is polarization causing elites to appear less trustworthy? 
* Remedy: Some propose re-emphasising methodological transparency and viewpoint diversity [7][17]; others focus on demand-side media literacy and algorithmic reforms [4][16]. 


# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions (ResearchSquare pre-print) – experimental social-science study.  
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# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science (Science journal article) – large-scale replication audit.  
 
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 (Pew Research Center) – longitudinal survey report.  
== Sources  ==
# Truth Decay (RAND Corporation) – policy research monograph.  
 
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists… (Pew Research Center) – survey report.  
# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ResearchSquare pre-print (peer-review pending)   
# An Epistemic Crisis? (Arnold Kling) – opinion essay / Substack.  
# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (peer-reviewed journal article)   
# America’s epistemological crisis (Dan Williams) – analytical essay / Substack.  
# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center trend survey   
# Elite failures and populist backlash (Dan Williams) – analytical essay / Substack.  
# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation research report  
# The expert class is failing… (Nate Silver) – journalistic commentary / Substack.  
# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center survey report   
# It’s the Epistemology, Stupid (Sam Kahn) – opinion essay / Substack.  
# An Epistemic Crisis? – Arnold Kling (opinion blog post)   
# The Reckoning (Sam Harris) – podcast / essay transcript.  
# America’s Epistemological Crisis – Dan Williams (opinion essay)   
# Why the Media Moves in Unison (Yascha Mounk) – investigative commentary.  
# Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Dan Williams (opinion essay)   
# 75 % of Psychology Claims are False (Lee Jussim) – explanatory blog post.  
# The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Nate Silver (opinion newsletter)   
# The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media (Jeff Bezos op-ed) – newspaper opinion column.  
# It’s The Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Khan (opinion newsletter)   
# Elite misinformation is an underrated problem (Matthew Yglesias) – policy commentary / Substack.  
# The Reckoning – Sam Harris (opinion newsletter)   
# The Fake News about Fake News (Boston Review) – magazine essay.  
# Why The Media Moves in Unison – Yascha Mounk (opinion newsletter)   
# How To Know Who To Trust… (Jesse Singal) – media criticism / Substack.  
# 75% of Psychology Claims Are False – Lee Jussim (opinion newsletter summarizing peer-reviewed work)   
# When the New York Times lost its way (The Economist) – investigative feature.  
# The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – Washington Post opinion piece (Jeff Bezos)   
# I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years… (The Free Press) – insider account.  
# Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Matthew Yglesias (opinion newsletter)   
# Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? (Steve Stewart-Williams) – opinion essay / Substack.
# The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (magazine feature)   
# How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (opinion newsletter)   
# When The New York Times Lost Its Way – The Economist (magazine feature)   
# I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (first-person essay)   
# Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (opinion newsletter)


== Sources ==
== Sources ==
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