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=== What is the epistemic crisis?  ===
== Overview ==
The phrase “epistemic crisis” describes a breakdown in society’s shared methods for determining what is true, credible, and actionable.  Commentators argue that when citizens, experts and institutions no longer agree on basic facts, collective decision-making falters and trust erodes.<ref name=Kling>[6]</ref><ref name=Williams>[7]</ref><ref name=RAND>[4]</ref>


“Epistemic crisis” is the phrase commentators use for a broad breakdown in society’s ability to agree on what is true and why.  Arnold Kling defines it as a situation in which “we no longer share trusted processes for separating knowledge from opinion” [5].  Dan Williams adds that the breakdown is visible when “large factions reject not only specific facts but the very institutions and methods tasked with producing facts” [6]. 
== What is the epistemic crisis? ==
'' A measurable collapse in public confidence that existing institutions can sort fact from error.  Long-running Pew data show U.S. trust in federal government near historic lows (17 % in 2024)<ref name=PewGov>[3]</ref> and trust in scientists down 14 percentage points since 2020.<ref name=PewSci>[5]</ref> 
'' A scientific “reproducibility crisis”: only 39 % of published psychology findings could be replicated in a large 2015 audit.<ref name=Repro>[2]</ref>  
'' Politicization of facts: experimental evidence finds that merely labeling an institution as aligned with a political side reduces trust even among co-partisans.<ref name=Politicization>[1]</ref> 
'' Commentators therefore claim the U.S. is experiencing an epistemic (or epistemological) crisis in which “no one knows whom to believe.”<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Khan>[10]</ref>


Peer-reviewed and survey data reinforce the diagnosis. RAND’s Truth Decay project documents a “diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life” [4], while Pew shows public trust in the U.S. federal government hovering near historic lows since the mid-2010s [3].  The problem is not merely disagreement but a failure of the normal epistemic machinery—scientific replication, journalistic fact-checking, expert consensus—to command assent.
== Causes commonly cited ==
= Politicization of neutral institutions – universities, public-health agencies, professional associations, and even courts publicly take partisan positions, making every statement look like political messaging.<ref name=Politicization/><ref name=Stewart>[20]</ref> =
= Information over-abundance – social media lowers barriers to publication, producing “truth decay,” i.e., more opinions than verifiable facts, and blurring the line between the two.<ref name=RAND/> =
= Erosion of gatekeeping media – legacy outlets lost audience share and revenue; algorithms reward engagement over accuracy, so misinformation spreads easily.<ref name=Mounk>[12]</ref><ref name=BostonReview>[16]</ref> =
= Demonstrated expert fallibility – failed replications in science,<ref name=Repro/> faulty economic or epidemiological forecasts,<ref name=Silver>[9]</ref> and high-profile retractions convince citizens that “experts are guessing.”<ref name=Jussim>[13]</ref> =
= Feedback loop of distrust – as trust declines, people rely on partisan or identity-based heuristics, which intensifies polarization and further reduces trust.<ref name=PewSci/><ref name=RAND/> =


=== What is driving the crisis?  ===
== Examples of elite failures that fueled the crisis ==
'' The replication failure rate in psychology (≈75 %) widely publicized in 2015–2020.<ref name=Repro/><ref name=Jussim/>
'' Public-health communication reversals during COVID-19 (mask guidance, school closures) cited as evidence of “elite incoherence.”<ref name=Silver/><ref name=Yglesias>[15]</ref>
'' Media mis-reporting: the “Potomac River plane crash” rumor analysed by Jesse Singal to show how journalists amplified unverified claims.<ref name=Singal>[17]</ref>
'' Financial-crisis risk models: economists and regulators underestimated systemic risk prior to 2008, undermining faith in technocracy.<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Kling/>
'' Political intelligence failures (e.g., Iraq WMD 2003) often referenced by commentators as an earlier shock to expert credibility.<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Harris>[11]</ref>
'' High-profile newsroom controversies (NYT “Tom Cotton op-ed,” NPR editor critique) illustrate perception that news organizations enforce ideological conformity rather than accuracy.<ref name=Economist>[18]</ref><ref name=NPR>[19]</ref>


# Politicization of knowledge-producing institutions  
== Timeline of the public discourse ==
  • A recent field experiment shows that when a scientific body is seen as politically aligned, trust falls even among ideologically sympathetic respondents [1].   
'' 2003–08 Iraq intelligence failures and the global financial crisis plant early seeds of distrust in policy experts.<ref name=Harris/><ref name=Williams/>
  • Steve Stewart-Williams argues that explicit political endorsements by professional organizations hasten this erosion [19].   
'' 2014  RAND begins the “Truth Decay” project, formalising worries about fact–value confusion.<ref name=RAND/>
'' 2015 Science publishes the reproducibility mega-study; the term “replication crisis” becomes mainstream.<ref name=Repro/>
'' 2016  “Fake news” dominates U.S. election coverage, focusing attention on social-media misinformation.<ref name=BostonReview/>
'' 2020–21  COVID-19 response highlights real-time expert disagreement; Substack writers popularise the phrase “epistemic crisis.”<ref name=Kling/><ref name=Williams/><ref name=Khan/>
'' 2023  Pew reports continued decline in trust in scientists; Economist and NPR whistle-blower articles dramatise newsroom trust issues.<ref name=PewSci/><ref name=Economist/><ref name=NPR/>
'' 2024 Pew updates government-trust series (17 %); Nate Silver and others argue the “expert class is failing.”<ref name=PewGov/><ref name=Silver/>


# Reproducibility problems inside science  
== Conflicting views among sources ==
  • The Open Science Collaboration found that only ~36 % of 100 high-profile psychology findings could be reproduced [2]. Lee Jussim popularizes the result, warning that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [12].
'' Some scholars emphasise demand-side problems (audience polarization) rather than elite failure.<ref name=PewGov/>  
'' Others argue elite mistakes are the primary driver and that ordinary citizens are reacting rationally to bad expert performance.<ref name=Silver/><ref name=Yglesias/>
'' RAND’s “Truth Decay” frames the crisis as structural (information environment) and bipartisan, whereas commentators like Sam Harris highlight partisan media incentives.<ref name=RAND/><ref name=Harris/>


# Information glut and fragmentation 
== See also ==
  • RAND identifies “the explosion of communication channels” as a driver of Truth Decay, making it easy for users to select congenial facts [4].  Sam Kahn calls this “epistemic disintermediation” [9]. 
'' [[Replication crisis]]
 
'' [[Misinformation]]
# Media herding and reputational incentives 
* [[Public trust in science]]
  • Yascha Mounk observes that legacy outlets “move in unison,” producing monoculture narratives that lose credibility when they miss emerging facts [11]. 
  • Nate Silver ties declining trust to an “expert class” rewarded more for expressing group consensus than for being right [8]. 
 
# Feedback loop of distrust 
  • Pew finds that as trust drops, citizens discount corrective information, deepening polarization [3].  Kling labels this a “state of mutual epistemic sabotage” [5]. 
 
Commentators disagree on relative weight: Harris emphasizes social-media amplification of falsehoods [10], while Williams stresses institutional self-inflicted wounds [6].  Both acknowledge a multi-cause dynamic. 
 
=== Examples of elite failures that intensified the crisis  ===
 
* Iraq WMD intelligence (2002-2003) – Used by RAND as an archetype of expert over-confidence that later collapsed [4]. 
 
* 2008 financial crisis – Widespread failure of regulators, ratings agencies, and economists to foresee systemic risk; cited by Williams as the moment “technocratic credibility cracked” [7]. 
 
* Reproducibility crisis in psychology (2011-present) – Empirical exposure of non-replicable flagship findings [2][12]. 
 
* 2016 U.S. presidential polling miss – Silver notes that most forecasters conveyed unwarranted certainty, fueling a populist backlash against “data journalism” [8]. 
 
* Early COVID-19 messaging (2020) – Shifts on masks, school closures, and lab-leak hypotheses became emblematic of what Yglesias calls “elite misinformation” [14]. 
 
* Media mishandling of the Hunter Biden laptop story (2020) – Mounk and The Economist document newsroom groupthink and later corrections [11][17]. 
 
* NPR internal critique (2024) – Senior editor Uri Berliner argues that ideological homogeneity alienated half the audience [18]. 
 
Each episode sharpened public suspicion that institutional gatekeepers are fallible, biased, or both, reinforcing the crisis cycle. 
 
=== Timeline of key moments in the public discourse  ===
 
2003  – Iraq WMD intelligence failure fuels first wave of anti-establishment skepticism [4]. 
 
2010-2014  – Blogs and social media accelerate “epistemic fragmentation” noted by RAND, while the term “Truth Decay” gains currency [4]. 
 
2015-2016  – Reproducibility crisis formalised in Science article (Aug 2015) [2].  2016 election shocks polls and pundits [8], popularising “epistemic crisis” terminology [5][6]. 
 
2020  – COVID-19 policy reversals and information wars mainstream the phrase.  Harris’s podcast series on “The Reckoning” (Oct 2020) frames the situation as a social-media pathology [10]. 
 
2021-2023  – Substack writers (Kling, Williams, Yglesias, Silver) debate whether elite bias or populist disinformation is the bigger culprit [5][6][14][8]. 
 
2024  – Pew updates its long-term trust series (June 2024) showing no rebound [3].  NPR and New York Times insiders publish self-critiques [18][17], keeping the crisis on the front page. 
 
=== Current state of the debate  ===
 
There is convergence that the epistemic crisis is real and multifactorial.  Disagreement persists on whether elite reform (greater transparency, methodological rigor) or audience reform (media literacy, algorithmic changes) should come first.  Some analysts, such as Sam Harris [10], foreground the role of social-media architecture, while Arnold Kling [5] and Dan Williams [6] stress institutional trustworthiness.  RAND’s policy prescriptions focus on both supply-side (improving expert communication) and demand-side (civic education) measures [4]. 
 
=== Summary  ===
 
An epistemic crisis exists when shared mechanisms for establishing truth lose authority.  It is driven by politicization of institutions, scientific reproducibility failures, information-ecosystem changes, and repeated elite misjudgments.  Episodes from WMD intelligence to COVID-19 messaging have compounded distrust, producing a feedback loop documented in survey and experimental data.  Scholars, journalists, and commentators agree on the severity but contest the primary cause and best remedy of the crisis.


== Sources ==
== Sources ==
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