Epistemic Crisis

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Overview

The phrase “epistemic crisis” describes a breakdown in society’s shared methods for determining what is true, credible, and actionable. Commentators argue that when citizens, experts and institutions no longer agree on basic facts, collective decision-making falters and trust erodes.<ref name=Kling>[6]</ref><ref name=Williams>[7]</ref><ref name=RAND>[4]</ref>

What is the epistemic crisis?

A measurable collapse in public confidence that existing institutions can sort fact from error. Long-running Pew data show U.S. trust in federal government near historic lows (17 % in 2024)<ref name=PewGov>[3]</ref> and trust in scientists down 14 percentage points since 2020.<ref name=PewSci>[5]</ref> A scientific “reproducibility crisis”: only 39 % of published psychology findings could be replicated in a large 2015 audit.<ref name=Repro>[2]</ref> Politicization of facts: experimental evidence finds that merely labeling an institution as aligned with a political side reduces trust even among co-partisans.<ref name=Politicization>[1]</ref> Commentators therefore claim the U.S. is experiencing an epistemic (or epistemological) crisis in which “no one knows whom to believe.”<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Khan>[10]</ref>

Feedback loop of distrust – as trust declines, people rely on partisan or identity-based heuristics, which intensifies polarization and further reduces trust.<ref name=PewSci/><ref name=RAND/>

Examples of elite failures that fueled the crisis

The replication failure rate in psychology (≈75 %) widely publicized in 2015–2020.<ref name=Repro/><ref name=Jussim/> Public-health communication reversals during COVID-19 (mask guidance, school closures) cited as evidence of “elite incoherence.”<ref name=Silver/><ref name=Yglesias>[15]</ref> Media mis-reporting: the “Potomac River plane crash” rumor analysed by Jesse Singal to show how journalists amplified unverified claims.<ref name=Singal>[17]</ref> Financial-crisis risk models: economists and regulators underestimated systemic risk prior to 2008, undermining faith in technocracy.<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Kling/> Political intelligence failures (e.g., Iraq WMD 2003) often referenced by commentators as an earlier shock to expert credibility.<ref name=Williams/><ref name=Harris>[11]</ref> High-profile newsroom controversies (NYT “Tom Cotton op-ed,” NPR editor critique) illustrate perception that news organizations enforce ideological conformity rather than accuracy.<ref name=Economist>[18]</ref><ref name=NPR>[19]</ref>

Timeline of the public discourse

2003–08 Iraq intelligence failures and the global financial crisis plant early seeds of distrust in policy experts.<ref name=Harris/><ref name=Williams/> 2014 RAND begins the “Truth Decay” project, formalising worries about fact–value confusion.<ref name=RAND/> 2015 Science publishes the reproducibility mega-study; the term “replication crisis” becomes mainstream.<ref name=Repro/> 2016 “Fake news” dominates U.S. election coverage, focusing attention on social-media misinformation.<ref name=BostonReview/> 2020–21 COVID-19 response highlights real-time expert disagreement; Substack writers popularise the phrase “epistemic crisis.”<ref name=Kling/><ref name=Williams/><ref name=Khan/> 2023 Pew reports continued decline in trust in scientists; Economist and NPR whistle-blower articles dramatise newsroom trust issues.<ref name=PewSci/><ref name=Economist/><ref name=NPR/> 2024 Pew updates government-trust series (17 %); Nate Silver and others argue the “expert class is failing.”<ref name=PewGov/><ref name=Silver/>

Conflicting views among sources

Some scholars emphasise demand-side problems (audience polarization) rather than elite failure.<ref name=PewGov/> Others argue elite mistakes are the primary driver and that ordinary citizens are reacting rationally to bad expert performance.<ref name=Silver/><ref name=Yglesias/> RAND’s “Truth Decay” frames the crisis as structural (information environment) and bipartisan, whereas commentators like Sam Harris highlight partisan media incentives.<ref name=RAND/><ref name=Harris/>

See also

Replication crisis Misinformation

• Public trust in science

Sources

Peer-reviewed Science:

1. Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public
2. Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Data-driven Analysis:

1. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research
2. Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation
3. Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research

Investigative Journalism & Commentary:

1. An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling
2. America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams
3. Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams
4. The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver
5. It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan
6. The Reckoning - Sam Harris
7. Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk
8. 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim
9. The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos
10. - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias
11. The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review
12. How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal
13. When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist
14. I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.
15. Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams

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Question

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?