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== What is the “epistemic crisis”? ==
=== What is the “epistemic crisis”? ===
The phrase refers to a broad breakdown in society’s ability to agree on what is true, how to determine truth, and whom to trust as credible authorities.  Commentators describe three inter-linked symptoms:
The phrase “epistemic crisis” is used in journalism, policy analysis and academic work to describe a perceived breakdown in shared standards for determining what is true.  Commentators argue that citizens no longer agree on where knowledge comes from, which institutions to trust, or even on basic facts, leading to social conflict, policy paralysis and vulnerability to misinformation [4][6][7].  RAND’s 2018 study labelled the same constellation of problems “Truth Decay,” noting four simultaneous trends: disagreement about facts, blurring of opinion and fact, information overload, and declining trust in formerly authoritative institutions [4].  More recent polling shows record-low public confidence in government [3] and in scientists [5], reinforcing the idea that the crisis is ongoing.


'' Widespread loss of trust in traditional knowledge-producing institutions such as government, science, universities and legacy media <sup>[1][3][5][6][12][14]</sup>.
=== What is causing it? ===
'' Information environments (cable news, social media, partisan outlets) that reward attention-grabbing narratives over careful fact-finding, leading to competing “realities” <sup>[4][7][15][16]</sup>.
Multiple mechanisms are invoked; none is universally accepted, but several themes recur across the literature.
'' Mounting evidence that even the expert class sometimes fails to meet its own ideals of accuracy, transparency and neutrality (e.g., the reproducibility crisis in psychology, pandemic forecasting errors, polling misses) <sup>[2][9][13]</sup>.


Collectively, these dynamics create a condition in which citizens, journalists and policymakers doubt not only particular claims but the very procedures by which claims are judged.
'' Politicization of knowledge-producing bodies.  Experimental evidence shows that when an institution’s work is framed as partisan, trust falls even among people who share the institution’s stated ideology [1]. 
'' Replication and quality problems inside science.  A landmark multi-lab effort could replicate only ~40 % of high-profile psychology findings [2]; later reviews claim the share of false findings may be closer to 75 % [12]. 
'' Media and information-system change.  Analysts point to 24-hour cable news, social media, and search‐driven advertising as amplifiers of sensational or identity-affirming content, while traditional newsrooms lose resources and public standing [13][14][15][16]. 
'' Declining elite performance (“elite failure”).  Commentators on both left and right argue that repeated expert and leadership errors—financial, military, epidemiological—have eroded the public’s prior of institutional competence [8][9][11]. 
'' Cognitive and motivational factors.  Writers such as Arnold Kling emphasise “motivated reasoning” and the tendency to treat politics as identity, which makes factual disagreement more durable [6]. 
'' Supply-side misinformation.  While some researchers warn the problem is overstated [10], others note that low barriers to publishing enable coordinated campaigns to spread false narratives that then thrive in the permissive media ecosystem [7].


== Causes most often cited ==
=== Examples of elite failure that contributed to the crisis ===
= Politicization of expertise.  Experimental work finds that when an institution is seen as politically aligned, trust in that institution drops even among ideological allies <sup>[1][20]</sup>.  =
Below are widely cited episodes in which decision-makers or expert bodies misinformed the public or performed poorly, becoming touchstones in the discourse on epistemic breakdown.
= Declining performance and visibility of elite failures.  High-profile mistakes—financial, geopolitical, medical, journalistic—undermine the assumption that credentialed authorities are reliably competent <sup>[8][9][11][15]</sup>.  =
= Information over-supply (“Truth Decay”).  Cheap digital distribution floods the public sphere with low-cost content, overwhelming individual fact-checking capacity and encouraging motivated reasoning <sup>[4][7][12][16]</sup>.  =
= Structural erosion of civic trust.  Long-running Pew trends show U.S. trust in federal government falling from roughly 70 % in the 1960s to under 20 % today <sup>[3]</sup>. Similar though less severe declines are now measured for “science” as a category <sup>[5]</sup>.  =
= Scientific self-correction delays.  Large replication projects suggest that many published results in psychology and other fields do not hold up under scrutiny, fueling suspicion that peer review is unreliable <sup>[2][13]</sup>. =


Analysts differ on emphasis: RAND’s “Truth Decay” report stresses information economics <sup>[4]</sup>; Arnold Kling highlights institutional incentives <sup>[6]</sup>; Dan Williams emphasizes cultural polarization <sup>[7]</sup>; Sam Harris focuses on social-media amplification of bad incentives <sup>[11]</sup>.
'' The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction intelligence failure (2002-03).  Frequently cited by Dan Williams and Yascha Mounk as an early modern case of bipartisan elite error that damaged media and government credibility [7][13]. 
'' The Global Financial Crisis (2008).  Analysts link regulatory and academic complacency to the crash, arguing that the failure of economists and regulators helped normalise scepticism toward experts [8]. 
'' The Replication Crisis in psychology and other sciences (2011-present).  Large-scale replication efforts revealed systemic methodological weaknesses, shaking confidence in peer review [2][12]. 
'' Pandemic messaging reversals (2020-22).  Nate Silver details how shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects undermined perceptions of technocratic competence [9]. 
'' Institutional media scandals.  Internal critiques at NPR [15], the New York Times [16] and the Washington Post [14] argue that politicised newsroom cultures led to coverage errors that further depressed trust in journalism.


== Examples of elite failures frequently cited as catalysts ==
=== Timeline of the public discourse ===
'' Iraq WMD intelligence (2002-03) — bipartisan political, intelligence and media consensus later shown false, damaging trust in both government and legacy press <sup>[12][16]</sup>.
'' 2003 Iraq WMD controversy sparks sustained questioning of intelligence and media narratives [7][13].
'' Global financial crisis (2007-09) — regulators and leading economists missed systemic risks; perceived as evidence of technocratic hubris <sup>[8][15]</sup>.
'' 2008–09 Financial crisis intensifies scrutiny of economic experts and regulatory agencies [8]. 
'' 2016 U.S. election polling miss — experts predicted a low probability of a Trump victory, eroding faith in quantitative models <sup>[9]</sup>.
'' 2015 Science publishes the “Reproducibility Project: Psychology,” igniting mainstream attention to replication failures [2].
'' COVID-19 communication reversals (2020-22) — changing guidance on masks, school closures and lab-leak theories highlighted both genuine uncertainty and political messaging pressure <sup>[11][15]</sup>.
'' 2018 RAND coins “Truth Decay,” framing the phenomenon as a policy challenge [4].
'' Reproducibility crisis in psychology and biomedicine — large-scale replication projects found fewer than half of landmark findings replicate, challenging the authority of published research <sup>[2][13]</sup>.
'' 2020 COVID-19 brings scientific uncertainty to daily life; trust in health authorities oscillates (covered extensively by Silver, Harris and others [9][11]).
'' Major newsroom controversies — disputed stories at The New York Times, NPR and others revived claims of partisan filtering inside elite media organizations <sup>[18][19]</sup>.
'' 2023 Pew finds a ten-point drop in trust in scientists since 2020 [5]; Dan Williams and Arnold Kling publish essays explicitly calling the moment an “epistemic crisis” [6][7].
'' 2024 Pew reports trust in U.S. federal government near historic lows [3]; overlapping Substack debates (Yglesias, Silver, Singal) focus on elite failure and information gate-keeping [9][13].


== Timeline of the public discourse (selected milestones) ==
=== Conflicting or divergent views ===
2004 – 2008 “Netroots” vs. “Right-blogosphere” debates foreshadow fragmentation of epistemic authorities. 
While most sources agree that trust is falling, they disagree on severity and remedy. RAND frames the issue as policy-fixable through better civic education and media literacy [4], whereas Sam Harris emphasises moral leadership and institutional reform [11].  Lee Jussim argues that replication crises show problems are largely internal to academia [12], while Yascha Mounk stresses structural incentives in media organisations [13].  Matthew Yglesias contends that “elite misinformation” is more damaging than fringe conspiracy content [13], a view some fact-checking scholars dispute [10].
2012 Nate Silver’s first bestseller popularises probabilistic forecasting and draws early culture-war fire <sup>[9]</sup>. 
2015 “Replication crisis” enters mainstream after Science publishes large psychology reproducibility project <sup>[2]</sup>. 
2016 Post-election soul-searching focuses on “fake news,” filter bubbles and polling errors <sup>[16]</sup>.   
2018 RAND coins “Truth Decay” to describe factual contestation and declining trust <sup>[4]</sup>. 
2020-2022 Pandemic magnifies battles over expertise; Pew finds first measurable drop in trust in scientists <sup>[5]</sup>.   
2023 Substack and other alternative platforms accelerate meta-conversation about “elite failure” <sup>[6][7][15]</sup>. 
2024 Pew records lowest trust in federal government since measurements began <sup>[3]</sup>; multiple high-profile journalists (e.g., NPR, NYT veterans) publish insider critiques of legacy media culture <sup>[18][19]</sup>.


== Conflicting views within sources ==
=== Summary ===
'' Some writers see the crisis mainly as a perception problem—institutions are still broadly reliable but communication failures obscure that fact <sup>[12]</sup>.   
The epistemic crisis refers to a multifaceted erosion of shared methods for establishing truth.  Data show declining trust in government, science and news.  Research attributes the problem to politicisation, scientific unreliability, changing information markets, and headline-grabbing elite failures such as the Iraq war, the financial crash, replication shortfalls and pandemic missteps.  Debate continues over root causes and fixes, but there is broad agreement that the legitimacy of knowledge institutions is under strain.
'' Others argue the problem is substantive: experts actually under-perform, and public skepticism is often rational <sup>[9][13][15]</sup>.   
'' There is disagreement over remedies.  Kling advocates decentralised knowledge production <sup>[6]</sup>, Harris calls for stronger platform moderation <sup>[11]</sup>, while Stewart-Williams warns that overt political endorsements by scientific bodies deepen skepticism <sup>[20]</sup>.
 
== Summary ==
The epistemic crisis is the convergence of eroding trust, politicized information and demonstrated expert fallibility.  Its causes are multi-layered—technological, cultural and institutional—and its manifestations range from policy stalemates to the viral spread of conspiracy theories.  Whether the core issue is failed perception or failed performance remains contested, but all sides agree that credibility, once lost, is hard to regain.


== Sources ==
== Sources ==
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