What is the epistemic crisis?

Revision as of 01:15, 1 May 2025

Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.

What is the epistemic crisis?

In contemporary U.S. discourse the phrase “epistemic crisis” refers to a perceived breakdown in society’s ability to establish shared facts and to reward trustworthy expertise. Commentators argue that once‐reliable knowledge institutions—science, journalism, government statistics, policy analysis—now face widespread doubt, so citizens retreat to partisan or identity-based information tribes instead of evidence-based consensus [4][5][6][7][12].

What is causing the crisis?

Declining baseline trust. Long-running trend surveys show that public confidence in federal government, media, and science has fallen to historic lows [3][5][13].

“Truth decay.” RAND researchers document four reinforcing drivers: cognitive biases, changes in the information ecosystem (social media, cable news), competing demands on journalism’s business model, and polarization [4].

Perceived politicization inside expert communities. Experimental work indicates that when institutions take visible partisan stands, even ideologically aligned citizens lose confidence [1][20].

Reproducibility problems in flagship sciences. The 2015 Science study replicated only 36 % of high-profile psychology findings [2], a result widely portrayed as evidence that peer review alone cannot safeguard truth [14].

High-salience elite failures (see next section). Each conspicuous mistake furnishes vivid anecdotes that confirm the public’s priors that “experts” are unreliable [8][9][10][11][15].

These explanations are not universally accepted. Some writers believe the main culprit is populist manipulation of social media, whereas others stress structural incentives inside elite institutions themselves [16][17].

Examples of elite failures that intensified the crisis

Public-health messaging whiplash during COVID-19 (e.g., early mask guidance that reversed within weeks), cited by Nate Silver as evidence of overconfidence and political signalling in scientific agencies [9].

High-profile retractions and non-replicable studies in psychology, behavioral economics, and biomedicine [2][14].

Media outlets misreporting the “Potomac plane crash” rescue narrative and other viral stories before verification, a pattern documented by Jesse Singal [17].

The New York Times’ 2020 Tom Cotton op-ed controversy, flagged by The Economist as an example of newsroom homogeneity overriding editorial standards [18].

NPR’s perceived loss of ideological diversity, described by a 25-year insider who argues it alienated broad audiences [19].

Intelligence consensus on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (not in the list above but invoked by multiple authors as archetypal elite error) is frequently referenced in discussions of truth decay [4][6].

Financial and political elites under-estimating the populist backlash that produced Brexit and the 2016 U.S. election, analysed by Dan Williams [8].

Timeline of the public conversation

2003–2008 Early trust slide accelerates after Iraq-WMD intelligence failure and the Global Financial Crisis (cited retrospectively by Williams [8] and Yglesias [15]).

2010–2013 Social-media platforms overtake newspapers as primary traffic drivers, beginning the incentives mis-alignment noted by RAND [4].

2015 Science publishes “Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science” [2]; phrase “replication crisis” gains mainstream attention.

2016 U.S. election popularizes “fake news,” prompting debates over platform moderation and media partisanship [16].

2018 RAND releases Truth Decay report [4]; Pew documents steep fall in Republican trust in national media [13].

2020–2022 COVID-19 policy reversals and politically freighted scientific statements intensify scrutiny of expertise [5][9][20].

2023–2024 Multiple journalists and scholars (Mounk [12], Silver [9], Bezos [13]) publish essays on collapsing institutional credibility; Pew finds trust in federal government hovering near all-time lows [3].

Points of disagreement in the sources

Some authors (e.g., Harris [11]) stress the moral duty of elites to defend objective truth even if it alienates partisans, whereas others (e.g., Khan [10]) argue that institutional neutrality must be restored first.

Researchers such as Cook et al. [1] emphasize measurable effects of politicization on trust, while opinion writers like Williams [6][8] foreground cultural ressentiment and class dynamics.

Sources (to be expanded by the community)

Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ResearchSquare pre-print (empirical study).
Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science journal article (peer-reviewed replication project).
Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center trend survey (longitudinal polling data).
Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation research report (multi-factor analysis).
Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center survey report (public opinion).
An Epistemic Crisis? – Arnold Kling blog post (commentary).
America’s Epistemological Crisis – Dan Williams essay (opinion).
Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Dan Williams essay (opinion).
The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Nate Silver newsletter (commentary).
It’s The Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Khan newsletter (commentary).
The Reckoning – Sam Harris newsletter (commentary).
Why The Media Moves in Unison – Yascha Mounk newsletter (media analysis).
The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – Washington Post opinion (Jeff Bezos).
75% of Psychology Claims Are False – Lee Jussim newsletter summarizing peer-reviewed work (meta-research commentary).
Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Matthew Yglesias newsletter (commentary with empirical references).
The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review feature (magazine analysis).
How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal newsletter (media criticism).
When The New York Times Lost Its Way – The Economist feature (media industry analysis).
I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press first-person essay (insider account).
Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams newsletter (normative/empirical discussion of politicization).

Sources

Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ResearchSquare pre-print (peer-review pending)
Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (peer-reviewed journal article)
Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center trend survey
Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation research report
Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center survey report
An Epistemic Crisis? – Arnold Kling (opinion blog post)
America’s Epistemological Crisis – Dan Williams (opinion essay)
Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Dan Williams (opinion essay)
The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Nate Silver (opinion newsletter)
It’s The Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Khan (opinion newsletter)
The Reckoning – Sam Harris (opinion newsletter)
Why The Media Moves in Unison – Yascha Mounk (opinion newsletter)
75% of Psychology Claims Are False – Lee Jussim (opinion newsletter summarizing peer-reviewed work)
The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – Washington Post opinion piece (Jeff Bezos)
Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Matthew Yglesias (opinion newsletter)
The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review (magazine feature)
How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal (opinion newsletter)
When The New York Times Lost Its Way – The Economist (magazine feature)
I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (first-person essay)
Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (opinion newsletter)

Question

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

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 ''Written by AI. Help improve this answer by adding to the sources section. When the sources section is updated this article will regenerate.''
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-== What is the epistemic crisis?   ==
+'''What is the epistemic crisis?'''
-Most commentators use the phrase “epistemic crisis” to describe a breakdown in the shared processes by which a society determines what is true.  Symptoms include declining trust in government, news media, scientists, and other traditional arbiters of knowledge; the spread of mutually exclusive factual narratives; and rising doubts about the reliability of expert advice or scientific findings [4][6][7][15].
+In contemporary U.S. discourse the phrase “epistemic crisis” refers to a perceived breakdown in society’s ability to establish shared facts and to reward trustworthy expertise. Commentators argue that once‐reliable knowledge institutions—science, journalism, government statistics, policy analysis—now face widespread doubt, so citizens retreat to partisan or identity-based information tribes instead of evidence-based consensus [4][5][6][7][12].
-The crisis is not merely about misinformation or “fake news.”  It is about the loss of a perceived ''system'' for adjudicating truth-claims—what RAND calls “Truth Decay,” the “diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life” [4].  When citizens no longer agree on who or what counts as an authoritative source, collective decision-making and long-term institutional legitimacy suffer.
 ----
-== What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?   ==
+'''What is causing the crisis?'''
-Different authors emphasize different drivers, but four broad themes recur:
+# Declining baseline trust. Long-running trend surveys show that public confidence in federal government, media, and science has fallen to historic lows [3][5][13].
-# Politicization of Expertise
+# “Truth decay.” RAND researchers document four reinforcing drivers: cognitive biases, changes in the information ecosystem (social media, cable news), competing demands on journalism’s business model, and polarization [4].
-   • Institutions that once presented themselves as neutral are increasingly perceived as partisan, especially when they take explicit political stands or are staffed by ideologically homogeneous elites [1][5][20].
-   • Experimental evidence shows that overt politicization reduces trust even among people who agree with the position being advocated [1].
-# Declining Reliability Signals
+# Perceived politicization inside expert communities. Experimental work indicates that when institutions take visible partisan stands, even ideologically aligned citizens lose confidence [1][20].
-   • Large-scale efforts to replicate influential psychology papers found that only 36-47% replicate, fuelling public scepticism about “settled” science [2][13].
-   • High-profile retractions and methodological crises make it harder for laypeople to know which studies to take seriously.
-# Information Abundance & Fragmentation
+# Reproducibility problems in flagship sciences. The 2015 Science study replicated only 36 % of high-profile psychology findings [2], a result widely portrayed as evidence that peer review alone cannot safeguard truth [14].
-   • Digital platforms have lowered entry costs for publishing, so elite outlets no longer monopolize attention. Competing narratives flourish, and confirmation-bias is amplified by algorithms [4][12][16].
-# Elite Failure & Eroding Trust
+# High-salience elite failures (see next section). Each conspicuous mistake furnishes vivid anecdotes that confirm the public’s priors that “experts” are unreliable [8][9][10][11][15].
-   • When expert predictions or policy decisions turn out badly, citizens update their priors about elite competence.  This “performance-based” scepticism accumulates across domains—finance, foreign policy, public health, education—and eventually generalises into a cross-domain trust collapse [6][8][9][15].
-Authors disagree on relative weight: Kling sees institutional overconfidence as central [6]; Williams stresses ideological uniformity in newsrooms and universities [7]; Yglesias highlights elite misinformation as an “underrated” factor [15]; RAND assigns equal blame to media, education, and political incentives [4].
+These explanations are not universally accepted. Some writers believe the main culprit is populist manipulation of social media, whereas others stress structural incentives inside elite institutions themselves [16][17].
 ----
-== Examples of elite failures that fuelled the crisis   ==
+'''Examples of elite failures that intensified the crisis'''
+* Public-health messaging whiplash during COVID-19 (e.g., early mask guidance that reversed within weeks), cited by Nate Silver as evidence of overconfidence and political signalling in scientific agencies [9].
+* High-profile retractions and non-replicable studies in psychology, behavioral economics, and biomedicine [2][14].
-* 2008 Financial Crisis
+* Media outlets misreporting the “Potomac plane crash” rescue narrative and other viral stories before verification, a pattern documented by Jesse Singal [17].
-  – Regulators, ratings agencies, and leading economists failed to foresee systemic risk, damaging confidence in economic expertise [4][9].
-* Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq (2003)
+* The New York Times’ 2020 Tom Cotton op-ed controversy, flagged by The Economist as an example of newsroom homogeneity overriding editorial standards [18].
-  – Intelligence community and major news outlets amplified faulty assessments, later acknowledged as error, reducing faith in both government and media [8][12].
-* Replication Crisis in Psychology (2015-present)
+* NPR’s perceived loss of ideological diversity, described by a 25-year insider who argues it alienated broad audiences [19].
-  – Landmark Science paper found fewer than half of 100 studies replicated [2]; follow-ups suggest up to 75 % of claims are false or exaggerated [13].
-* COVID-19 Messaging (2020-2023)
+* Intelligence consensus on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (not in the list above but invoked by multiple authors as archetypal elite error) is frequently referenced in discussions of truth decay [4][6].
-  – Shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures, and vaccine transmission created perception of political rather than evidentiary decision-making [6][9][15].
-* Media Coverage Controversies
+* Financial and political elites under-estimating the populist backlash that produced Brexit and the 2016 U.S. election, analysed by Dan Williams [8].
-  – Internal critiques at NPR [19], The New York Times [18], and broader surveys show newsroom monoculture leading to groupthink and factual errors, inviting populist backlash [12][18][19].
 ----
-== Timeline of the public discourse   ==
+'''Timeline of the public conversation'''
--1970s
-* Public trust in federal government consistently above 60 % [3].
-s
+–2008 Early trust slide accelerates after Iraq-WMD intelligence failure and the Global Financial Crisis (cited retrospectively by Williams [8] and Yglesias [15]).
-* Rise of cable news and early internet begins fragmenting audiences; trust starts to decline [4].
+–2013 Social-media platforms overtake newspapers as primary traffic drivers, beginning the incentives mis-alignment noted by RAND [4].
-* Iraq WMD intelligence failure becomes a formative scepticism event [8][12].
--2009
+ Science publishes “Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science” [2]; phrase “replication crisis” gains mainstream attention.
-* Financial crisis leads to renewed questioning of expert competence in economics and regulation [4][9].
+ U.S. election popularizes “fake news,” prompting debates over platform moderation and media partisanship [16].
-* “Replication crisis” enters mainstream after Science publishes reproducibility project [2].
-* RAND launches Truth Decay project [4].
--2018
+ RAND releases Truth Decay report [4]; Pew documents steep fall in Republican trust in national media [13].
-* “Fake news” becomes political rallying cry; Facebook and Twitter hearings in Congress [16].
-* Multiple think-pieces label the situation an “epistemic crisis” [6][7].
--2022
+–2022 COVID-19 policy reversals and politically freighted scientific statements intensify scrutiny of expertise [5][9][20].
-* COVID-19 accelerates debate over politicization of science; Pew registers sharp fall in trust in scientists among Republicans and, later, Democrats [5].
-* Substack newsletters (Silver, Harris, Singal, Khan) provide alternative venues for evaluating expert failure narratives [9][11][17].
--2024
+–2024 Multiple journalists and scholars (Mounk [12], Silver [9], Bezos [13]) publish essays on collapsing institutional credibility; Pew finds trust in federal government hovering near all-time lows [3].
-* Continued drop in trust in government hits new lows (Pew: 16 %) [3].
-* Nate Silver argues the “expert class is failing,” tying institutional mistakes to electoral outcomes [9].
-* Surveys show media credibility at or near record lows [14][19].
 ----
-== Public discourse and fault lines   ==
+'''Points of disagreement in the sources'''
-Consensus
+* Some authors (e.g., Harris [11]) stress the moral duty of elites to defend objective truth even if it alienates partisans, whereas others (e.g., Khan [10]) argue that institutional neutrality must be restored first.
-* Nearly all sources agree that trust in traditional institutions is falling and that politicization correlates with this decline [1][3][4][5].
-Contested Points
+* Researchers such as Cook et al. [1] emphasize measurable effects of politicization on trust, while opinion writers like Williams [6][8] foreground cultural ressentiment and class dynamics.
-* Cause vs. symptom: Is elite failure driving distrust, or is polarization causing elites to appear less trustworthy?
-* Remedy: Some propose re-emphasising methodological transparency and viewpoint diversity [7][17]; others focus on demand-side media literacy and algorithmic reforms [4][16].
 ----
-== Sources   ==
+Sources (to be expanded by the community)
+# Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ResearchSquare pre-print (empirical study).
+# Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science journal article (peer-reviewed replication project).
+# Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 – Pew Research Center trend survey (longitudinal polling data).
+# Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life – RAND Corporation research report (multi-factor analysis).
+# Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline – Pew Research Center survey report (public opinion).
+# An Epistemic Crisis? – Arnold Kling blog post (commentary).
+# America’s Epistemological Crisis – Dan Williams essay (opinion).
+# Elite Failures and Populist Backlash – Dan Williams essay (opinion).
+# The Expert Class Is Failing, and So Is Biden’s Presidency – Nate Silver newsletter (commentary).
+# It’s The Epistemology, Stupid – Sam Khan newsletter (commentary).
+# The Reckoning – Sam Harris newsletter (commentary).
+# Why The Media Moves in Unison – Yascha Mounk newsletter (media analysis).
+# The Hard Truth: Americans Don’t Trust the News Media – Washington Post opinion (Jeff Bezos).
+# 75% of Psychology Claims Are False – Lee Jussim newsletter summarizing peer-reviewed work (meta-research commentary).
+# Elite Misinformation Is an Underrated Problem – Matthew Yglesias newsletter (commentary with empirical references).
+# The Fake News About Fake News – Boston Review feature (magazine analysis).
+# How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition – Jesse Singal newsletter (media criticism).
+# When The New York Times Lost Its Way – The Economist feature (media industry analysis).
+# I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press first-person essay (insider account).
+# Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams newsletter (normative/empirical discussion of politicization).
+== Sources ==
 # Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public – ResearchSquare pre-print (peer-review pending)
 # Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science – Science (peer-reviewed journal article)
@@ Line 118: / Line 113: @@
 # I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust – The Free Press (first-person essay)
 # Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? – Steve Stewart-Williams (opinion newsletter)
-== Sources ==
-# [https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-3239561/v1 Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public]
-# [https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aac4716 Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science]
-# [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024 Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research]
-# [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research%20reports/RR2314.html Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation]
-# [https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/11/14/americans-trust-in-scientists-positive-views-of-science-continue-to-decline/ Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research]
-# [https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling]
-# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams]
-# [https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams]
-# [https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver]
-# [https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan]
-# [https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning The Reckoning - Sam Harris]
-# [https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-the-media-moves-in-unison Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk]
-# [https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/75-of-psychology-claims-are-false 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim]
-# [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/ The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos]
-# [https://www.slowboring.com/p/elite-misinformation-is-an-underrated - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias]
-# [https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/the-fake-news-about-fake-news/ The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review]
-# [https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/how-to-know-who-to-trust-potomac How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal]
-# [https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist]
-# [https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.]
-# [https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-scientific-organizations-endorse Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams]
 == Question ==