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What is the epistemic crisis?

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The epistemic crisis

An “epistemic crisis” is a period in which large parts of the public lose confidence that existing institutions, experts, and information channels can reliably tell them what is true. Dan Williams defines it as a breakdown in the shared rules we use “to decide which claims to believe” [7], while Arnold Kling frames it as a collapse in “common knowledge” that once under-girded political and scientific debate [6]. RAND’s Truth Decay project similarly stresses the “diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life” [4].

Across surveys, trust in government, the news media, and even science has fallen to historic lows [3][5]. Replication failures in research [2] and open disagreements among experts during the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the sense that no authority can be taken at its word [6][8]. The result, according to Nate Silver, is that “the expert class is failing” and the public no longer believes that technocrats can steer society through crises [9].

Causes of the crisis

  1. Politicization of expertise. When scientific or professional bodies take overt political stances, trust erodes—especially among those who would normally be ideologically aligned [1][16].
  2. Proven elite error. High-profile mistakes (e.g., financial crisis forecasts, Iraq WMD intelligence, early COVID messaging) create feedback loops of skepticism [9][13].
  3. Low reproducibility in the sciences. The large‐scale replication study in psychology found that only ~36 % of seminal results replicated, feeding popular narratives that “75 % of psychology claims are false” [2][12].
  4. Fragmented media ecosystems. Cable news, social platforms, and partisan outlets flood audiences with conflicting frames, while legacy media face accusations of groupthink [13][14].
  5. Cognitive overload & motivated reasoning. RAND highlights that a 24/7 information environment pushes citizens toward heuristics—trusting in-group narratives rather than weighing evidence [4].

Examples of elite failures that fueled the crisis

  • The replication crisis. Published failures to reproduce cornerstone psychology findings undermined faith in peer review [2][12].
  • COVID-19 messaging reversals. Shifts on masks, school closures, and lab-leak discourse were perceived as incompetence or bias by many commentators [6][9].
  • Financial crisis of 2008. Economists, ratings agencies, and regulators failed to anticipate systemic risk, delegitimizing macroeconomic expertise [9][11].
  • Iraq War intelligence (2003). Faulty assessments on weapons of mass destruction eroded trust in both intelligence services and major newspapers that uncritically amplified them [11][14].
  • Media scandals. Controversies at The New York Times [14] and NPR [15] are cited as proof that newsroom cultures can become insular, ideological, or error-prone.
  • Political endorsements by scientific bodies. Critics argue that when organizations such as the AMA or scientific societies endorse candidates, they appear partisan and diminish perceived neutrality [16].

Timeline of the public discourse

1958–1970s: Trust in U.S. federal government peaks at 73 % (1958) but starts a long decline after Vietnam and Watergate [3].

1990s: Rise of 24-hour cable news and talk radio creates segmented audiences.

2003–2008: Iraq intelligence failure and Global Financial Crisis intensify scrutiny of expert judgment.

2010–2015: Social media platforms scale. Science publishes the first large replication study, revealing systemic weaknesses in psychology [2]. RAND coins “Truth Decay” (2018) [4].

2020–2021: COVID-19 brings unprecedented reliance on expert guidance. Communication miscues and politicization deepen skepticism [5][6][9].

2023–2024: Pew reports record-low trust in scientists among many demographic groups [5]; commentators declare an “epistemic crisis” [6][7][9].

Conflicting views in the discourse

  • Some analysts (e.g., Yglesias [11]) emphasize elite misinformation; others (Boston Review [13]) argue that the “fake news” panic itself is overstated.
  • Sam Harris [10] sees the crisis largely as a problem of online disinformation, while Dan Williams [7] stresses institutional failures.
  • Lee Jussim [12] portrays replication problems as evidence of widespread scientific unreliability, whereas the original Science replication paper urges incremental reform, not wholesale distrust [2].

Source Analysis

  1. Peer-reviewed preprint (political science / psychology)
  2. Peer-reviewed journal article (Science, reproducibility study)
  3. Survey report (Pew Research Center)
  4. Policy research report (RAND Corporation)
  5. Survey report (Pew Research Center)
  6. Opinion essay / commentary (Arnold Kling, Substack)
  7. Opinion essay / commentary (Dan Williams, Substack)
  8. Opinion essay / commentary (Dan Williams, Substack)
  9. Opinion essay / commentary (Nate Silver, Substack)
  10. Opinion essay / commentary (Sam Khan, Substack)
  11. Opinion essay / commentary (Sam Harris, Substack)
  12. Opinion essay / commentary summarizing academic literature (Lee Jussim, Substack)
  13. Magazine essay / investigative journalism (Boston Review)
  14. Magazine essay / investigative journalism (The Economist)
  15. Opinion essay / insider account (The FP)
  16. Opinion essay / commentary (Steve Stewart-Williams, Substack)

Sources

  1. Study: Politicization Undermines Trust in Institutions, Even Among the Ideologically Aligned Public

2. Study: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Data-driven Analysis:

3. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research

4. Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life - RAND Corporation 5. Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline - Pew Research

Investigative Journalism & Commentary:

  1. An Epistemic Crisis? - Arnold Kling
  2. America's epistemological crisis - Dan Williams
  3. Elite failures and populist backlash - Dan Williams
  4. The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency Nate Silver
  5. It's The Epistemology, Stupid - Sam Khan
  6. The Reckoning - Sam Harris
  7. Why The Media Moves in Unison - Yascha Mounk
  8. 75% of Psychology Claims are False - Lee Jussim
  9. The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - Jeff Bezos
  10. - Elite misinformation is an underrated problem - Matthew Yglesias
  11. The Fake News about Fake News - The Boston Review
  12. How To Know Who To Trust, Potomac Plane Crash Edition - Jess Singal
  13. When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist
  14. I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust.
  15. Should Scientific Organizations Endorse Political Candidates? - Steve Stewart-Williams

Question

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?

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