What is the epistemic crisis?

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What is the “epistemic crisis”?

The phrase “epistemic crisis” is used in journalism, policy analysis and academic work to describe a perceived breakdown in shared standards for determining what is true. Commentators argue that citizens no longer agree on where knowledge comes from, which institutions to trust, or even on basic facts, leading to social conflict, policy paralysis and vulnerability to misinformation [4][6][7]. RAND’s 2018 study labelled the same constellation of problems “Truth Decay,” noting four simultaneous trends: disagreement about facts, blurring of opinion and fact, information overload, and declining trust in formerly authoritative institutions [4]. More recent polling shows record-low public confidence in government [3] and in scientists [5], reinforcing the idea that the crisis is ongoing.

What is causing it?

Multiple mechanisms are invoked; none is universally accepted, but several themes recur across the literature.

Politicization of knowledge-producing bodies. Experimental evidence shows that when an institution’s work is framed as partisan, trust falls even among people who share the institution’s stated ideology [1]. Replication and quality problems inside science. A landmark multi-lab effort could replicate only ~40 % of high-profile psychology findings [2]; later reviews claim the share of false findings may be closer to 75 % [12]. Media and information-system change. Analysts point to 24-hour cable news, social media, and search‐driven advertising as amplifiers of sensational or identity-affirming content, while traditional newsrooms lose resources and public standing [13][14][15][16]. Declining elite performance (“elite failure”). Commentators on both left and right argue that repeated expert and leadership errors—financial, military, epidemiological—have eroded the public’s prior of institutional competence [8][9][11]. Cognitive and motivational factors. Writers such as Arnold Kling emphasise “motivated reasoning” and the tendency to treat politics as identity, which makes factual disagreement more durable [6]. Supply-side misinformation. While some researchers warn the problem is overstated [10], others note that low barriers to publishing enable coordinated campaigns to spread false narratives that then thrive in the permissive media ecosystem [7].

Examples of elite failure that contributed to the crisis

Below are widely cited episodes in which decision-makers or expert bodies misinformed the public or performed poorly, becoming touchstones in the discourse on epistemic breakdown.

The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction intelligence failure (2002-03). Frequently cited by Dan Williams and Yascha Mounk as an early modern case of bipartisan elite error that damaged media and government credibility [7][13]. The Global Financial Crisis (2008). Analysts link regulatory and academic complacency to the crash, arguing that the failure of economists and regulators helped normalise scepticism toward experts [8]. The Replication Crisis in psychology and other sciences (2011-present). Large-scale replication efforts revealed systemic methodological weaknesses, shaking confidence in peer review [2][12]. Pandemic messaging reversals (2020-22). Nate Silver details how shifting public-health guidance on masks, school closures and vaccine side-effects undermined perceptions of technocratic competence [9]. Institutional media scandals. Internal critiques at NPR [15], the New York Times [16] and the Washington Post [14] argue that politicised newsroom cultures led to coverage errors that further depressed trust in journalism.

Timeline of the public discourse

2003 Iraq WMD controversy sparks sustained questioning of intelligence and media narratives [7][13]. 2008–09 Financial crisis intensifies scrutiny of economic experts and regulatory agencies [8]. 2015 Science publishes the “Reproducibility Project: Psychology,” igniting mainstream attention to replication failures [2]. 2018 RAND coins “Truth Decay,” framing the phenomenon as a policy challenge [4]. 2020 COVID-19 brings scientific uncertainty to daily life; trust in health authorities oscillates (covered extensively by Silver, Harris and others [9][11]). 2023 Pew finds a ten-point drop in trust in scientists since 2020 [5]; Dan Williams and Arnold Kling publish essays explicitly calling the moment an “epistemic crisis” [6][7]. 2024 Pew reports trust in U.S. federal government near historic lows [3]; overlapping Substack debates (Yglesias, Silver, Singal) focus on elite failure and information gate-keeping [9][13].

Conflicting or divergent views

While most sources agree that trust is falling, they disagree on severity and remedy. RAND frames the issue as policy-fixable through better civic education and media literacy [4], whereas Sam Harris emphasises moral leadership and institutional reform [11]. Lee Jussim argues that replication crises show problems are largely internal to academia [12], while Yascha Mounk stresses structural incentives in media organisations [13]. Matthew Yglesias contends that “elite misinformation” is more damaging than fringe conspiracy content [13], a view some fact-checking scholars dispute [10].

Summary

The epistemic crisis refers to a multifaceted erosion of shared methods for establishing truth. Data show declining trust in government, science and news. Research attributes the problem to politicisation, scientific unreliability, changing information markets, and headline-grabbing elite failures such as the Iraq war, the financial crash, replication shortfalls and pandemic missteps. Debate continues over root causes and fixes, but there is broad agreement that the legitimacy of knowledge institutions is under strain.

Sources

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Question

What is the epistemic crisis? What is the cause of the epistemic crisis? What are some examples of elite failure the caused the epistemic crisis?