What is the epistemic crisis?

Question

• What is the epistemic crisis?
• What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?
• What are some examples of elite failure?

Sources

• https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/an-epistemic-crisis
• https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epistemological-crisis
• https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/elite-failures-and-populist-backlash
• https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-expert-class-is-failing-and-so
• https://samkahn.substack.com/p/its-the-epistemology-stupid
• https://samharris.substack.com/p/the-reckoning

Answer from Wikle

1. What is the epistemic crisis?

The epistemic crisis refers to a situation where society's agreed-upon methods for determining truth and falsity are breaking down. It's a crisis of knowledge and truth, where people no longer agree on what constitutes reliable sources of information or valid methods of reasoning. This crisis is characterized by widespread distrust in institutions, experts, and traditional sources of authority, accompanied by the proliferation of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories.

2. What is the cause of the epistemic crisis?

According to the sources, the epistemic crisis is caused by a variety of intertwined factors:

- Arnold Kling argues that the crisis is caused by an overreliance on experts and a lack of ideological diversity, which leads to groupthink and blind spots. He suggests that the crisis is exacerbated by the internet, which has disrupted traditional information hierarchies and allowed misinformation to spread more easily.

- Nate Silver suggests that the crisis is linked to the failure of the expert class. He argues that experts have often been wrong, overconfident, or biased, which has undermined trust in their authority.

- Sam Harris blames the crisis on the rise of social media and the decline of traditional media. He argues that social media platforms incentivize sensationalism and polarization, which erodes trust in objective truth and encourages the spread of misinformation.

- Conspicuous Cognition identifies a failure of the elites, arguing that the crisis is a result of the erosion of trust in institutions due to their repeated failures and lack of accountability.

3. What are some examples of elite failure?

- The 2008 financial crisis: According to Conspicuous Cognition, this is a prime example of elite failure, where financial experts and regulators failed to prevent a massive economic meltdown.

- The Iraq War: Sam Harris cites the decision to invade Iraq as a major elite failure, where intelligence experts and political leaders wrongly asserted that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

- The COVID-19 pandemic: Nate Silver points out that many experts initially downplayed the threat of the virus or gave conflicting advice about how to respond, which undermined public trust in their expertise.

- The 2016 U.S. presidential election: Nate Silver also mentions the failure of political experts and pollsters to accurately predict the outcome of the election, which further eroded trust in their authority.